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Latest Valuentum Commentary
May 11, 2022
Domino’s Longer Term Growth Runway Intact, Chipotle's Free Cash Flow Remains Robust
Image Source: Domino’s Pizza Inc – 2022 ICR Conference Presentation. Domino’s Pizza is contending with serious inflationary pressures and headwinds from changing consumer spending habits as the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic fades. We continue to view the firm’s longer term outlook quite favorably and appreciate its franchise-heavy business model (~98% of its stores are franchised), which enables Domino’s to generate substantial free cash flows in almost any operating environment. Our fair value estimate for Domino’s sits at $517 per share, and we include shares of DPZ as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Shares of DPZ yield ~1.3% as of this writing, offering incremental income generation upside potential to its favorable capital appreciation risk-reward scenario, in our view. Another one of our favorite restaurants, Chipotle Mexican Grill posted 9.0% year-over-year comparable restaurant sales growth in the first quarter of 2022. During Chipotle’s latest earnings call, management noted that in-store sales surged 33% due to the economy opening back up and consumers resuming “normal” dining activities. The firm’s digital sales held up relatively well and represented 42% of Chipotle’s total sales last quarter. During the period, Chipotle reported 16% year-over-year GAAP revenue growth and 18% year-over-year GAAP operating income growth as the firm effectively took advantage of its pricing power to get ahead of inflationary pressures. As with Domino's, we continue to like Chipotle as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.
Apr 12, 2022
Best Idea Domino’s Is Incredibly Shareholder Friendly
Image Shown: Domino’s Pizza Inc is incredibly shareholder friendly. Image Source: Domino’s Pizza Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Domino’s Pizza Inc is one of our favorite restaurant franchises. We include Domino’s as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as we are huge fans of its asset-light business model, strong free cash flow generating abilities, bright growth outlook, and shareholder friendly management team. Our fair value estimate for Domino’s sits at $517 per share, substantially above where shares of DPZ are trading at as of this writing. Additionally, shares of DPZ yield a modest ~1.1% as of this writing, and its dividend program offers incremental upside to the potential return from capital appreciation.
Feb 25, 2022
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 25
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Feb 10, 2022
Chipotle Sees Bigger Unit Growth Opportunity in North America, Continued Pricing Power
Image: Chipotle’s shares look like they are poised to breakout of a downtrend on news that its long-term unit restaurant opportunity is bigger than expected and that its pricing power remains intact. Chipotle's fast-casual focus and premium food offerings coupled with its Chipotlane rollouts and its breakfast “call option” are a few things that give the company a runway for continued strength that may be unprecedented by an established brand, particularly as it sees an even greater opportunity for unit development in North America than it did before. Because it serves a higher-end fast-casual customer, we think product pricing ahead of inflation won’t be an issue (helping to augment margins), and we’re reiterating our fair value estimate of ~$1,640 per share, above where shares are currently trading at the time of this writing (~$1,580 per share). A more optimistic take on Chipotle could see shares reach the higher end of our fair value estimate range of ~$1,970 per share.
Jan 6, 2022
Best Idea Domino’s Has a Massive Growth Runway
Image Source: Domino’s Pizza Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Domino’s Pizza runs a great business. Most of its store locations are franchised (~98% as of September 2021), meaning inflation cost headwinds fall more squarely on its franchisees. The company has put up great same store sales performance on both a domestic and international basis in recent fiscal years, and it continues to have an immense growth runway. Domino’s is a stellar generator of free cash flow, too, thanks to its asset light revenue model. We include shares of Domino’s as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.
Oct 24, 2021
Best Idea Chipotle Mexican Grill’s Growth Runway is Enormous
Image Shown: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc’s restaurant level unit economics continued to improve in the third quarter of 2021, supporting the company’s growth trajectory. Image Source: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 Non-GAAP Reconciliation Presentation. On October 21, Chipotle Mexican Grill reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Comparable restaurant sales grew 15% year-over-year last quarter as Chipotle’s e-commerce business held up well, with digital sales up 9% year-over-year (representing 43% of its total sales during this period), while customers resumed in-store dining activities in earnest. We liked what we saw in Chipotle’s latest earnings report. Shares of CMG are included as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.
Aug 13, 2021
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week August 13
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Jul 22, 2021
Best Idea Chipotle Rockets Higher!
Image Shown: We include Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc an as idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. On July 21, shares of CMG surged higher after the firm reported a stellar earnings report after the market close on July 20. In our April 2021 article covering the company, we highlighted how Chipotle’s management team sees room for the firm to more than double its restaurant unit count in the coming years. Chipotle’s growth runway is immense. The company’s second-quarter earnings report was stellar, and the market continues to warm up to Chipotle’s promising long-term growth story. We are big fans of Chipotle and expect that the firm’s free cash flows will continue to grow at a steady clip over the coming years.
Jun 8, 2021
News Round Up and Some Answers
Image Shown: Wendy's is the latest stock to be swept away by the meme-stock craze, providing further evidence that 1) markets are inefficient and 2) prices and returns are based on future expectations that may be realized or not. We continue to witness extremely volatile trading in "meme" stocks, including AMC Entertainment and GameStop but the crowd has now moved into restaurants of late, centering on Wendy’s, which soared to an all-time high as a result of positive mentions on the Reddit platform. We think price-agnostic trading--trading that does not pay attention to the underlying value of the security--will create tremendous problems for the financial markets, if not curbed. In the meantime, we continue to watch with a cautious eye. You should, too.
Jun 1, 2021
ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.