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Latest Valuentum Commentary
Sep 16, 2019
Economic Roundtable: Quant Quake, “Quac-cidental Correlation,” and Economic Moats
Image Source: Anders Sandberg. Last week, the markets may have revealed that internals aren’t all that healthy. Major equity markets experienced a “rotation” that reminded many investors of the “quant quake” from August 2007. As Valuentum’s Brian Nelson wrote in Value Trap, “just a few bad days in the market caused a rapid unwinding of many quant long-short strategies (back then). Goldman’s chief financial officer said at the time that the firm was witnessing ‘25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.’” On the surface, markets last week seemed relatively calm, but as the episode in 2007 revealed the activity last week may just be the calm before the storm. Many are pointing to overcrowded trades in betting against certain factors, while others are saying that many were forced to deleverage. We’re not so sure, and we think it may be the opposite: after years of suffering from lagging “value” returns, we think several quant shops stepped in to take on leverage, betting on a return to “value.” Let's talk about last week's quant quake, spurious correlations (the “guac-cidental correlation, in fact), economic moats and much more.
Sep 11, 2019
Economic Roundtable: “Value” Versus “Growth” Rotation
“This kind of trading activity could be setting the stage for a big quant fund blow up, if the kind of leverage it takes to move the markets to this magnitude was applied. All it may take is for the B/M “value” factor to continue to suffer in the coming 12-18 months--it’s possible we could see a few quant firms go belly up. My guess is that market participants are paying very close attention to this activity, and if they “smell blood,” things could get ugly.” – Brian Nelson, CFA
Sep 11, 2019
Why We Like BIN Holding Visa So Much
Recent volatility in Visa’s share price aside, the long-term trajectory of this company is sound and shares of Visa trade modestly below our fair value estimate at this time. We like the strong upward momentum in Visa’s share price year-to-date and expect that shares of V could test the upper bounds of our fair value range (as it stands today) over time.
Sep 5, 2019
Valuentum’s Economic Roundtable: Trade War, Factors and Beyond
The markets rallied hard September 5 on relief that the US and China will go back to the negotiations table next month. This back-and-forth news cycle is enough to give any investor whiplash. Let’s catch up with the Valuentum Team on the latest developments, not only with the trade war but also with respect to factor investing, possible bubbles and beyond.
Sep 4, 2019
The "Hierarchy" of Valuentum Idea Generation
Image: The Valuentum Buying Index rating scale.Let's talk about this hierarchy of idea generation in this note.
Aug 22, 2019
What’s on the Valuentum Team’s Mind?
Let’s get the Valuentum team’s thoughts on recent developments.
Aug 13, 2019
Thought Piece: The Hidden Advantage
Image Source: Kamilla Oliveira. As activist investing proliferates, investors are becoming more and more familiar with celebrity investing gurus such as Carl Icahn and David Einhorn. Let’s examine how these investing giants have carved out a unique structural advantage over mom-and-pop investors. This article was originally published in June 2014.
Aug 4, 2019
ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA
Catch up with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles.
Jul 28, 2019
Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.
Jul 25, 2019
Google, Intel -- Yes!
Let's talk Google and Intel, remind you that we've removed Chipotle, Xilinx, and Boeing from the newsletter portfolios some time ago. I'll talk a little about PayPal's run higher and address some other themes, including contingent liabilities with J&J and 3M.
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.