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Latest Valuentum Commentary
Oct 21, 2021
Johnson & Johnson Boosts Guidance Again, Posts Great Earnings Update
Image Shown: Johnson & Johnson reported strong performance across its three core business operating segments in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 19, Johnson & Johnson reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended around the end of September 2021) that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The healthcare giant also raised its full-year guidance (again) for fiscal 2021 as its ‘Pharmaceutical’ segment is growing at a robust pace, its ‘Medical Device’ segment is steadily recovering from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, and its ‘Consumer Health’ segment is holding up well. We continue to like Johnson & Johnson as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.
Oct 18, 2021
Dividend Growth Idea UnitedHealth Group Beats Estimates, Raises Guidance (Again)
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc moved higher in the wake of its latest earnings report and guidance boost. On October 14, the health insurance and health care services provider giant UnitedHealth Group reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company also raised its full-year earnings guidance (again) for 2021 in conjunction with its latest earnings report, boosting its EPS forecast to $17.70-$17.95 and its non-GAAP adjusted EPS forecast to $18.65-$18.90. Shares of UNH are included as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as we are enormous fans of its fortress-like balance sheet and ability to generate free cash flows in almost any operating environment. As of this writing, shares of UNH yield ~1.4%.
Sep 13, 2021
The Investment Case for More Gender Diversity
Image: The Impact Shares' YWCA Women’s Empowerment ETF (WOMN) has trounced the S&P 500 since inception, while the SPDR SSGA Gender Diversity Index ETF (SHE) has bested the quantitatively-hailed small cap value ETF over the same time period. There has been a plethora of research over the years regarding the value of diversity on teams, in corporate boardrooms, and across asset management. One of the forms of diversity is gender diversity. It has been documented that diverse teams create more innovative ideas and creativity, which can serve as quite an advantage in industries where margins are slim, or there are few barriers to entry. While a 2019 study summarized in the Harvard Business Review indicated that the value of gender diversity is highly context-dependent and tends to have the greatest benefit where it is already valued, the corporate environment, and arguably the stock market, itself, are a few of those areas where value has been demonstrated.
Jul 22, 2021
Johnson & Johnson Beats Estimates, Raises Guidance Once Again
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Second Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On July 21, Johnson & Johnson reported second-quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company (once again) boosted its full-year guidance in conjunction with its latest earnings update as Johnson & Johnson’s business is steadily rebounding from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, with an eye towards the ongoing recovery in the sales of its medical devices and related offerings. We include shares of JNJ as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Its latest earnings report and guidance boost reinforced our favorable view towards the name. Shares of JNJ yield ~2.5% as of this writing, and the top end of our recently updated fair value estimate range sits at $206 per share of Johnson & Johnson, well above where shares are trading at as of this writing.
Jul 16, 2021
Dividend Growth Idea UnitedHealth Group Surges Towards All-Time Highs After Stellar Earnings Update, Guidance Boost
Image Shown: Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc, an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, are trading near their all-time highs as of this writing after the firm reported a stellar second quarter 2021 earnings report. In conjunction with its latest earnings report, UnitedHealth Group once again raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance for 2021. We continue to be huge fans of the name. We are enormous fans of UnitedHealth Group, and the healthcare giant has not disappointed since we added shares of UNH as an idea to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio back on November 27, 2020. Shares of UNH are up 26% from November 27 to July 15, outperforming the 20% gain seen at the S&P 500 during this period before considering dividend considerations (which would not change this picture much). The company’s balance sheet is pristine, its free cash flow generating abilities are simply stellar, and its growth outlook is incredibly bright. Recent guidance increases highlight management’s confidence that UnitedHealth Group is steadily recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, keeping in mind that the resumption of elective surgeries and other heath service activities during the second half of this year will create temporary headwinds for the firm. Heading into 2022, UnitedHealth Group sees its various businesses having ample momentum, and the company’s growth outlook over the long haul is incredibly promising. We like UnitedHealth Group as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.
Jul 14, 2021
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Jul 13, 2021
Our Reports on the Health Care Bellwethers Industry
Image Source: A 4. Our reports on the Health Care Bellwethers industry can be found in this article Reports include JNJ, WBA, CVS, ISRG, MDT, ZBH, BAX, BDX, BSX, MTD, SYK, BIIB, GILD, ABT, ABBV, LLY, AMGN, BMY, MRK, PFE, VRTX, ZTS, REGN, UNH.
Jul 8, 2021
Still Bullish -- Stocks for the Long Run!
Image shown: The 10-year Treasury rate has fallen quite a bit since March of this year, suggesting that inflation expectations have come down in recent months. Image source: CNBC. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq continue to hover near all-time highs, and all appears well. We maintain our bullish take on the markets and believe that we are in the early innings of a long bull market that started following the washout March 2020 during the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown. Stock bull markets tend to average about 4.4 years in duration, with the last one enduring ~11 years, while bear markets are very abrupt, lasting only 11.3 months on average, the last one a very short 1.1 months, according to data from First Trust. We’re about 15 months into this new stock bull market, and we continue to believe increased equity exposure may better serve investors of all types going forward, through both the best of times and the worst of times.
Jun 29, 2021
The Skill Paradox Is a Myth in Investing
Image: The game of baseball has changed during the past 100 years. While many point to a declining standard deviation and coefficient of variation in batting averages for evidence of a paradox of skill in baseball, it's more likely the game has changed. Players are hitting more homeruns, sacrificing batting average as a result. Source: Baseball Almanac. Michael Mauboussin, while highlighting in his own words in The Success Equation how stock portfolios have conformed over time due to a reduction of active share brought about by myriad influences in how active managers are "playing the game," completely misses using this explanation as the correct conclusion for the observation of declining standard deviations of excess returns. There is no paradox of skill in investing. Investors are conforming to the same playbook due to conflicting incentives (perhaps even driving active management skill levels collectively lower), and this is resulting in what we're seeing today. Unlike his work in evaluating baseball and basketball, Mauboussin seems to completely miss that active mutual funds and ETFs are also only 15% of the market. In the case of investing, analyzing the standard deviation of returns of 15% of the stock market, as in active funds and ETFs, tells us little about luck or skill. Warning about the use of small sample sizes early in the book, the combination of this errant conclusion has only padded the indexing propaganda making The Success Equation an absolute tragedy of a text, and I must say it hurts me a lot to say it (I know how much work goes into writing a book, and I generally enjoy Mauboussin's work).
Jun 27, 2021
Two Alerts and Bull Market On!
Image Source: Mike Cohen. "We like stocks in an inflationary environment, and we love big cap tech and large cap growth in any environment." -- Brian Nelson, CFA
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.