Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Oct 19, 2022

Johnson & Johnson Reports Mixed 3Q Results, Plans to Spin Off Consumer Health Division Mid-to-Late 2023
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson. Johnson & Johnson is one of the top weightings in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and it has delivered tremendous stability at a time when the markets are facing considerable pressure. Year-to-date, Johnson & Johnson has fallen about 4% on a price-only basis, while the S&P 500 is down more than 18% so far in 2022. Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflationary pressures and currency headwinds will muddy operational results in the near term, and its planned spin-off of its ‘Consumer Health’ division as Kenvue in mid-to-late 2023 will complicate financials, but we still like Johnson & Johnson. Shares yield ~2.7% at the time of this writing.

Oct 18, 2022

Dividend Growth Idea UnitedHealth Group Outperforming
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc have put up stellar performance so far in 2022. We are huge fans of UnitedHealth Group, and its dividend growth potential remains immense. The top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $599 per share of UnitedHealth Group, indicating that the health care giant also possesses substantial capital appreciation upside as well. UnitedHealth Group’s acquisition of Change Healthcare is intriguing and should generate material synergies going forward. Looking ahead, we expect that UnitedHealth Group will grow its dividend at a robust pace, aided by its strong free cash flow generating abilities and pristine balance sheet.

Sep 19, 2022

The Success Equation Book Review: Is the Skill Paradox a Myth in Investing? We Think So
Image: The game of baseball has changed during the past 100 years. While many point to a declining standard deviation and coefficient of variation in batting averages for evidence of a paradox of skill in baseball, it's more likely the game has changed. Players are hitting more homeruns, sacrificing batting average as a result. Note the red part of the line is when the game of baseball expanded to the current number of 30 teams. Data from the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season omitted. Source: Baseball Almanac. There's a lot of informational value in reading The Success Equation (and everyone should pick up a copy), but please be careful to come to your own conclusion. From where we stand, there is not a paradox of skill in investing (or baseball, for that matter). The games have simply changed based on new incentives. Some wise person may have written this before: Be careful not in what you read, but rather in the conclusions you draw from your reading. We wish Mauboussin could re-write The Success Equation considering some of the thoughts in this article. Maybe he will!

Sep 5, 2022

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way
It’s easy to lose sight of the tremendous value that a Valuentum subscription provides during down markets, but we’ve been here for you every step of the way. 2019, 2020, and 2021 were fantastic years, and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio have delivered in 2022. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio is holding up nicely, and ideas within the Exclusive publication continue to boast impressive success rates. Members continue to receive options ideas to bet directionally on the stock market, and the book Value Trap has been true to its efforts, showcasing the ongoing benefits of forward-looking analysis. [Given the change in opinion following the publishing of the August edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter, please be sure to check www.Valuentum.com for Valuentum’s latest.]

Sep 1, 2022

Nelson: Executing the Valuentum Strategy
Video: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why he's turned bearish on the equity markets after a great bull run. In this 8-minute video, learn about the fantastic returns of the stock market the past three years, and how the Valuentum way has cushioned the market decline in 2022. Watch now to learn about the textbook execution of the Valuentum strategy and more!

Aug 27, 2022

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to "Raise" Incremental Cash
Video: Valuentum's Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by "tapped out" consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market "flush," and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to "raise" incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes.

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Jul 20, 2022

UnitedHealth Group Beats Estimates and Once Again Raises Guidance
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc moved higher by ~5% during normal trading hours on July 15 after reporting a stellar earnings update. The health care giant once again raised its full-year earnings guidance for 2022 in conjunction with its latest earnings update. Shares of UNH have held up quite well year-to-date in the face of volatile capital markets. On July 15, UnitedHealth Group reported second quarter 2022 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The health care giant also boosted its non-GAAP adjusted EPS guidance to $21.40-$21.90 for 2022, up from $21.20-$21.70 previously, in conjunction with it second quarter earnings update. Please note that this is the second time UnitedHealth Group has increased its earnings guidance for 2022 (it also boosted its full-year forecasts back in April 2022), and we appreciate management’s confidence in UnitedHealth Group’s near term outlook. We include UnitedHealth Group as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and shares of UNH yield ~1.3% as of this writing. At the high end of our fair value estimate range, we assign UnitedHealth Group a fair value estimate of $599 per share, well above where UNH is trading at as of this writing. UnitedHealth Group has a fortress-like balance sheet, “moaty” business characteristics, a bright growth outlook, and is a stellar free cash flow generator.

Jul 11, 2022

Valuentum's Unmatched Product Suite
We continue to be huge believers in the concept of enterprise valuation, which emphasizes the key cash-based sources of intrinsic value--net cash on the balance sheet and strong and growing future expected free cash flows. Meta Platforms, Inc. and Alphabet Inc. remain two of the most underpriced ideas on the market today, and we remain huge fans of their tremendous long-term investment prospects.

Jul 4, 2022

Nelson: I Have Been Wrong About the Prospect of Near-Term Inflationary-Driven Earnings Tailwinds
"Though I have been clearly wrong on my near-term thesis for inflation-driven earnings expansion, we still did great sorting through investment idea considerations. Through late June, for example, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has generated 4-5 percentage points of alpha relative to the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY. The simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is down only modestly this year, also performing better than traditional benchmarks. The simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter is generating “alpha” against comparable benchmarks, and the Exclusive publication continues to deliver, with both capital appreciation ideas and short idea considerations generating fantastic success rates. ESG and options-idea generation have also been great. With all this being said, in the long run, I believe nominal earnings will expand rapidly from 2021 levels, which is why I remain bullish on stocks. I believe markets tend to overestimate earnings in the near term and underestimate them in the long run. The intelligent investor knows, too, that the most money is made during recessions and bear markets, where steady reinvestment and dollar cost averaging help to better position portfolios for higher returns over the longer run. The newsletter portfolios are well-positioned for continued “outperformance,” in our view, and while we may make a few tweaks to them, we’re not making any material changes at this time."