Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary
Feb 24, 2020
ALERT: Adding Market Crash 'Protection,' Removing MSFT, BKNG
Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We're adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We're removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and we're removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We reiterate that, had the Dow Jones Industrial Average already swooned a couple thousand points on news of the COVID-19 outbreak, we might have considered some undervalued stocks with strong momentum potential "buying opportunities." However, to this point in time, the markets have largely ignored COVID-19, with major US indices still sitting near all-time highs. We could be in for a wild ride in the coming weeks and months, and an outright market crash is not out of question. For those looking for short-idea considerations, please consider the Exclusive publication here. We remain fully-invested in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio given its yield and income focus.
Feb 22, 2020
Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? -- Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios
Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report -- 32. We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates--estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due to COVID-19--and corporate debt levels more elevated than ever before (note, a high net debt level should depress the P/E in enterprise valuation--US corporate debt has advanced 50% over the past decade, to $10 trillion), it is our contention that the current market reflects a “situation-equivalent” forward P/E (i.e. rightsizing for new net debt relative to the dot-com peak and adjusting for lower forward earnings expectations compared with current forecasts) perhaps greater than 24.4, which was recorded at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Though interest rates are lower than they were at the time of the dot-com crash, suggesting a modest reasonable bump to normalized forward P/E ratios of ~15 times to reflect “fair valuations,” we could seriously be in for fundamental-driven crash soon, as both the earnings multiple and earnings estimates contract aggressively. Hypothetically, a contraction to a 16x forward multiple on earnings estimates just 10% lower than currently forecast implies an S&P 500 of 2,566, or a swoon of about 20%-30% from current levels--and that would just get us down to 16x still-respectable forward numbers. How quantitative-driven price-agnostic trading may impact this scenario is not known either, and all of this could be setting up for a wild ride in the coming weeks and months. Fasten your seatbelts. We’ll have a few newsletter portfolio alerts coming Monday.
Jan 23, 2020
Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.
Dec 20, 2019
General Mills’ Pet Segment Performs Well
Image Source: General Mills Inc – Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. On December 18, General Mills reported second quarter results for its fiscal 2020 (period ended November 24, 2019), which saw shares of GIS rise by almost 2% during normal trading hours that day as investors were excited over its strong performance of its pet food sales. Please note General Mills completed its $8.0 billion all-cash acquisition of Blue Buffalo Pet Products Inc in April 2018, and investors have been eagerly awaiting the revenue growth stimulus that deal was projected to generate. Shares of GIS are trading near the very top of our fair value range estimate and yield 3.7% as of this writing.
Oct 31, 2019
Our Reports on Stocks in the Food Products (Large/Mid-Cap) Industry
Our reports on stocks in the Food Products (Large/Mid-Cap) industry can be found in this article. Reports include ADM, BG, CPB, CAG, GIS, HSY, K, KHC, MDLZ, NSRGY, UL, UN.
Aug 19, 2019
No Recession At Walmart; Estee Lauder Not Cheap
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Walmart’s results were quite reassuring regarding the health of the economy. There are also pockets of significant strength, with prestige beauty being catapulted by a “selfie generation.”
Aug 9, 2019
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending August 9
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Jul 28, 2019
Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.
Mar 21, 2019
In the News: Dividend Growth Still on Hold at General Mills After Strong Quarter, Avoiding FedEx and BMW After Warnings on Bottom-Line Weakness, and a Biogen as a Prime Example of Risks to Avoid in Biotech
General Mills raised bottom-line and free cash flow conversion expectations for fiscal 2019, but we’re not interested in shares as it continues to prioritize deleveraging over dividend growth in a slow growth environment. International corporations continue to weigh the impact of slowing macroeconomic activity and global trade tensions, as evidenced by FedEx and BMW slashing bottom-line expectations, and shares of Biogen have been rocked by news that it terminated two late-stage studies of a key Alzheimer’s treatment.
Feb 22, 2019
Kraft-Heinz Blows Up, More Updates!
Image shown: The rating history of Kraft-Heinz (KHC). Valuentum members were warned in advance of this pricey equity in 2016/2017, and the VBI rating never advanced past 5 since then after registering a 1, the worst rating, on two separate occasions.
Latest Press Releases
The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.