Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 4, 2025

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months.

Nov 4, 2024

Berkshire Hathaway’s Operating Earnings, Free Cash Flow Fall in Third Quarter
Image: Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its stake in Apple and Bank of America. Berkshire’s third quarter operating results weren’t great, and the firm noted that it expects pre-tax incurred losses from Hurricane Milton to be between $1.3-$1.5 billion and be reflected in its fourth quarter earnings. Free cash flow has faced some pressure during the first nine months of the year, and Buffett continues to cash out of Apple and Bank of America. Berkshire’s cash balance continues to swell, perhaps indicating that Buffett views the market as overheated at the moment. Total shareholders’ equity was $631.8 billion at the end of September, translating into a price-to-book ratio of 1.54. Shares of Berkshire are not cheap, in our view, but the company remains a key holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Sep 19, 2024

Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios.

Aug 25, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the site.

Aug 9, 2024

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.

Jun 14, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Jun 10, 2024

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.

Mar 17, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Feb 27, 2024

Berkshire Hathaway Caps Off Strong Year of Operating Earnings Growth
Image: Berkshire’s operating earnings experienced a strong advance during 2023 from last year’s levels. On February 24, Berkshire Hathaway reported strong fourth-quarter results that capped off a year where operating earnings advanced 21% on a year-over-year basis. Warren Buffett tipped his hat to his long-time partner Charlie Munger, who passed away in November of last year, crediting him as the architect of Berkshire and himself merely in charge of the “construction crew.” There weren’t many surprises in the annual report, and Buffett made several references to areas that he has long talked about in the past, including pointing investors to operating earnings, as opposed to net income, which includes unrealized capital gains that can make reported results seem more volatile. All things considered, we liked Berkshire’s update, and we continue to like the firm as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.