Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jul 7, 2022

2022 Oil & Gas Market Update: “The Outlook for Crude Oil Prices Remains Quite Bullish”
In our view, the outlook for crude oil prices remains quite bullish which in turn should enable Chevron and Exxon Mobil, two of our favorite newsletter portfolio ideas, to churn out “gobs” of free cash flow over the coming quarters. Additionally, both Chevron and Exxon Mobil have substantial exposure to natural gas prices, in part through their enormous LNG export facilities in Australia, which should further support their cash flow generating abilities. We will caution here that a key downside risk the global energy complex faces is potential demand destruction as consumers adjust their lifestyles accordingly to reduce their energy and fuel bills. With that in mind, we have yet to see energy demand falter in a meaningful way, though we are keeping a close eye on the state of the global economy.

Sep 8, 2021

Dividend Aristocrat Albemarle Bets Big on Lithium
Image Source: Albemarle Corporation – May 2021 IR Presentation. Dividend Aristocrat Albemarle Corp is a specialty chemicals company with three core business operating segments; ‘Lithium’ (primarily used for battery storage solutions), ‘Catalysts’ (primarily used in the oil refining industry), and ‘Bromine Specialties’ (primarily used as flame retardants). The company is focused on aggressively growing its lithium derivatives operations going forward, Albemarle’s largest in terms of revenues and most profitable in terms of non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA performance. Albemarle offers investors a way to play both the ongoing EV boom and the recovery in global refined petroleum product demand (via its Catalysts business operating segment) as the world slowly emerges from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Let's learn more about this fascinating idea.

Feb 12, 2021

Biofuel Producer Renewable Energy Group Is Worth a Look
Image Shown: A geographical overview of Renewable Energy Group’s operational “biorefineries” in the US and Germany. Image Source: Renewable Energy Group Inc – October 2020 IR Presentation. Renewable Energy Group is an intriguing biofuel maker with operational “biorefineries” located across the US and in Europe (specifically Germany). The company’s operations are supported by an extensive distribution network that is primarily built upon supply agreements with third parties, though Renewable Energy Group opened its own branded fuel location in 2019 for the first time. Shares of REGI have been on an upward tear of late, likely due to growing investor optimism towards green energy firms, in our view, as the new Biden administration in the US has made it clear that it would push for greater federal incentives to stimulate investment in domestic renewable energy industries. In Europe, the EU has imposed mandates and created incentives to stimulate investment in the biofuel space and non-EU members states, like Norway and the UK, have also implemented aggressive policies to support the biofuel industry. During the first nine months of 2020, Renewable Energy Group’s financial performance posted a tremendous turnaround as the company focused on higher-margin products. The company’s balance sheet is pristine, though we caution that historically, Renewable Energy Group has leaned on equity issuances to fund its growth ambitions though more recently, the firm has started to focus on reducing its outstanding diluted share count (or at the very least, limiting its shareholder dilution). We are impressed with Renewable Energy Group’s recent financial performance and are intrigued by its long-term outlook. However, we caution that the firm is highly exposed to exogenous forces. Government incentives, or lack thereof, from national government bodies (and to a lesser extent, from certain US state governments) will have an outsized impact on the trajectory of Renewable Energy Group’s growth story going forward. Investors are clearly optimistic, as shares of REGI have more than tripled over the past year. Please note Renewable Energy Group does not pay out a common dividend at this time.

Jan 13, 2021

Surveying the Clean Energy Landscape for Ideas
Image Source: American Electric Power Company Inc (AEP) – January 2021 IR Presentation.  There’s a lot of interest in clean energy these days! Though our favorite ideas within a portfolio context are always the ideas within the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and the Exclusive publication, we also highlight interesting ideas via our articles that we publish on our website. In this article, let’s dig deep into the clean energy space. We’ll talk more about 1) Ameresco (AMRC), one of the green energy ideas we highlighted in the past that has performed incredibly well, 2) NextEra (NEE), a large utility “family” to keep an eye on (a utility firm and a merchant power spinoff), 3) First Solar (FSLR), a US-based manufacturer of solar panels, and 4) various alternative fuel and power storage companies, including Clean Energy Fuels Corp (CLNE) and Gevo Inc (GEVO). The recently-passed omnibus spending package in the US included significant funds to support various alternative and renewable energy activities. For example, the production tax credit for wind farms was extended for one year while the investment tax credit for solar plants was extended by two years. This is a major benefit for both manufacturers of solar modules and wind turbines along with the utility firms (XLU) that would own/operate such assets. Looking ahead, we expect that the US federal government will be very accommodative toward the green energy space as President-elect Biden and the incoming US Congress (which will be controlled by the Democratic Party) will likely step up federal investments in the space (such as subsidies, low or no interest loans, favorable procurement contracts, and other considerations). The share prices of various solar companies are on the rise as witnessed through the performance of funds such as Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) surging higher of late, while the impressive price performance of iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) showcases the widespread nature of investor excitement toward almost all green energy oriented firms. Other securities in this realm include ALPS Clean Energy ETF (ACES) and SPDR S&P Kensho Clean Power ETF (CNRG).

Mar 24, 2014

Small Capitalization Stocks Officially in Bubble
Small capitalization stocks are in a bubble. We think investors should be cautious with the group.