Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary
Sep 24, 2023
Report Updates: Amazon Registers the Lowest Rating on Our Scale
Check out the latest report updates on the website. The biggest takeaway of this refresh is that Amazon is poised to generate significantly negative free cash flow in 2023, and while we think the firm will turn this measure around materially in the long haul, shares are coming out as overvalued on our discounted cash-flow process, while technically its stock price is breaking down. An overvalued stock on both an absolute and relative value basis with negative technical/momentum indicators registers the worst rating on our methodology, the Valuentum Buying Index (1=worst, 10-best).
Sep 20, 2023
ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.
Sep 18, 2023
The Role of Luck in Investing and How To Think About It
Image: EpicTop10.com. For every Amazon that made it, there are hundreds, maybe thousands, from the dot-com era that didn't. Very few remember Pets.com or etoys.com, both of which went belly up during the dot-com meltdown. For every Tesla, there is a DeLorean Motor Co. We might have completely forgotten about DeLorean were it not for the blockbuster movie, Back To The Future, that immortalized its futuristic sports car. For every streaming enterprise like Netflix, there is a Napster that failed. Most of us probably don't even remember the original Napster, which encountered legal troubles before closing shop shortly after the dot-com bust. For every Alphabet, there's an AltaVista or Netscape. For every Apple, there is a Palm or Blackberry. Who remembers how popular the Palm Pilot and Blackberry were? How about the Motorola Razr? For every Facebook and Instagram, there is a Myspace or Friendster. As investors, we underestimate the role of luck in a company's long-term success. In February 2000, a month before the dot-com market crash, a fledgling Amazon raised $672 million in convertible notes to European investors. If the company hadn't done so, there'd likely be no Amazon today, and one of the wealthiest men in the world, Jeff Bezos, might have just been a mere footnote in stock market history. Amazon would have been insolvent in 2001-2002 just like many of its other dot-com peers.
Aug 23, 2023
“A New Computing Era Has Begun” -- Nvidia Delivers Yet Again
When we first wrote that Nvidia would power this market higher back in May, the firm had just put up one of the most prolific earnings beats I had ever seen. I’d have to go back almost 20 years to the invention of Apple’s iPod click-wheel technology to remember something that came close. Well, on August 23, Nvidia just put up another monster quarter, this one the second of its fiscal year 2024, beating top-line and bottom-line consensus estimates by a huge margin for the period ending July 30. We’ve raised our fair value estimate of Nvidia considerably following the blockbuster second-quarter performance and third-quarter outlook, released today, and the race is on to adopt artificial intelligence [AI].
Aug 22, 2023
Theft Becoming a Huge Problem for Retailers
Image Source: Ben Schuman. Theft has always been a problem for retailers, but it has never been as big of a problem as it has been in recent quarters. Emboldened by the lack of police response and employees sometimes getting fired for confronting shoplifters, retail organized crime is on the rise. We’re not talking theft in the millions, or billions, but likely in the tens of billions per year or more across the U.S. Some attribute the rise of organized retail crime to the pandemic, which paved the way for shoplifters to post their loot online in order to make a quick buck. Some retailers are especially feeling the pinch, and recent commentary reveals just how bad retail theft (shrink) has become to their respective businesses.
Jun 21, 2023
Expect Huge Equity Returns This Decade, Much More Volatility However
Image: Without question, the stylistic area of large cap growth has been the place to be for almost 15 years now. We think it remains the place to be. We expect huge equity returns this decade, but much more volatility – the kind of volatility that will make holding stocks painful at times (and shake out some investors at the worst possible time), but it is what it is, as it has always been. We’re as bullish today as we’ve ever been. Cheers!
May 30, 2023
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.
May 25, 2023
Nvidia Rockets Higher to Propel Large Cap Growth
Image: Nvidia powers higher after releasing better-than-expected second-quarter fiscal 2024 guidance. The company continues to be a driver behind the outperformance of large cap growth as a stylistic area. We haven’t seen a quarterly guidance beat like this since Synaptics put up a monster quarter when Apple started using its innovative click-wheel technology in the first-generation iPod, almost 20 years ago. Nvidia Corp.'s outlook for the second quarter of its fiscal 2024 was phenomenal thanks to tremendous interest in its chips that power artificial intelligence [AI]. We expect a material increase in our fair value estimate of Nvidia, but shares remain quite pricey, in our view. Revenue during Nvidia’s fiscal second quarter is expected to be ~$11 billion versus consensus that had been looking at ~$7 billion, implying a forward outlook more than 50% better than what the Street was looking for. Interestingly, Synaptics’ click-wheel technology started the wave of Apple products, which have been the go-to tech platform for years, and Nvidia may very well be the driving force behind AI proliferation, the next great technology platform.
May 23, 2023
Call Me Unconcerned
Image: Large cap growth has dominated returns the past five years. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continues to have significant exposure to this area. We’re taking it slow this time of year. With the area of large cap growth nearly doubling since the beginning of 2018, trouncing the return of the broader market, dividend growth strategies, the area of small cap value and general REIT indices, it’s just hard to find much wrong with staying pat. The proliferation of artificial intelligence will likely propel big cap tech and large cap growth to new highs, while small cap value may continue to be weighed down by the banks--and dividend-oriented strategies may face continued pressure from rising interest rates and tired real estate markets. Things were a bit murky during 2022, but thanks for keeping the faith.
May 22, 2023
Nice! -- NASDAQ-100 Follows Through on Breakout
Image: NASDAQ-100 breaks through August 2022 resistance.
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.