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Valuentum Commentary
May 19, 2025
3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 6, 2025
Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. Apr 30, 2025
Visa’s Free Cash Flow Generation Remains Phenomenal
Image: Visa continues to translate a high percentage of revenue into free cash flow generation. Visa’s payments volume increased 8% in the fiscal second quarter, while cross border volume increased 13%. Processed transactions increased 9% from the same period a year ago. For the six months ended March 31, net cash provided by operating activities came in at $10.1 billion, up from $8.2 billion over the same period last year. Capital expenditures were $672 million over the six month period, up from $548 million in the year-ago period. Free cash flow for the six months ended March 31 was $9.4 billion, or 49.3% of total revenue. We continue to be fans of Visa’s business model and strong free cash flow generation. Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Jan 31, 2025
Visa’s Free Cash Flow Margins Are Incredible
Image Source: Visa. Visa’s cash and investment securities were $16.1 billion at the end of the calendar year versus short-and long-term debt of $20.6 billion. For the three months ended December 31, operating cash flow was $5.4 billion, up from $3.6 billion in the year ago period. Capital spending came in at $345 million in the quarter, with the firm hauling in free cash flow of $5.05 billion, revealing a free cash flow margin of 53%. Looking to full year 2025, management is targeting low double-digit growth in net revenue and low-teens earnings per share growth. We continue to like Visa as a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $365 per share. Nov 1, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of November 1
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Oct 30, 2024
Visa Reports Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter Results
Image: Visa’s shares look poised to break out to new all-time highs. At the end of the quarter, Visa’s cash and investment securities totaled $17.7 billion, while long-term debt stood at $20.8 billion, reflecting a modest but manageable net debt position. Visa returned $6.8 billion to investors in the form of share repurchases and dividends during the fiscal fourth quarter, while the board increased Visa’s quarterly cash dividend 13%, to $0.59 per share. For the twelve months ended September 30, Visa put up a 65.7% operating margin and a free cash flow margin of 52%. We continue to like Visa as a top idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $329 per share. Sep 30, 2024
DOJ Antitrust Lawsuits Targeting Our Top Two Ideas: V and GOOG
Image: Alphabet's and Visa's shares have performed remarkably well since the beginning of 2023. We received a number of questions regarding the DOJ's investigation into anticompetitive practices for two of the top ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Antitrust news with respect to Alphabet’s ad search business and Visa’s debit card business is nothing surprising, but it speaks to the positives and dominance behind their business models, something we like quite a bit. Any outcome of an antitrust lawsuit is uncertain and could result in a settlement and potential other action, including divestitures. Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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Image: Visa’s free cash flow generation remains phenomenal. Visa’s fiscal third quarter results showed that the consumer continues to be resilient, with healthy spending trends continuing into July. During the quarter, payments volume increased 8%, while total cross-border volume increased 12%. Processed transactions increased 10% in the quarter. Cash and investment securities were $20.4 billion at the end of the quarter versus $25.1 billion in short- and long-term debt. For the nine months ended June 30, cash flow from operations increased to $16.8 billion, up from $13.3 billion in the same period a year ago. For the nine months ended June 30, free cash flow totaled $15.7 billion, or 53.7% of revenue. We continue to like Visa as a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.