Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 10, 2020

Public Storage Continues to Shine
Image Shown: Shares of Public Storage have recovered from the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic and have been on an upward climb over the past few months. On November 4, Public Storage reported earnings for the third quarter of 2020. As expected, headwinds created by the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic weighed on its financial performance during this period; however, that did not stop the self-storage real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) from being very free cash flow positive. The long-term outlook for the self-storage industry in metropolitan areas in the US and elsewhere remains quite promising given the desire for households to maximize living space within their housing unit at a given budget. We include shares of Public Storage in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and shares of PSA yield 3.5% as of this writing.

Nov 9, 2020

CubeSmart Is One of Our Favorite REITs
Image Source: CubeSmart – October 2020 Deluxe Storage Transaction IR Presentation. We continue to be huge fans of the self-storage industry, and CubeSmart is one of our favorite REITs in the space. The ability for self-storage REITs to generate sizable free cash flows in almost any operating environment highlights the resilience of their business model. Going forward, due to CubeSmart’s apparent ability to tap capital markets at attractive rates, we view the REIT’s forward-looking payout coverage favorably.

Nov 4, 2020

Digital Realty’s Momentum Continues, Raises Outlook
Image Shown: An overview of Digital Realty Trust Inc’s asset base. Image Source: Digital Realty Trust Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 29, the data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Digital Realty Trust reported third quarter 2020 earnings that beat consensus revenue estimates and consensus funds from operations (‘FFO’) estimates. Please note that while FFO is an imperfect metric, particularly because it does not incorporate the REIT in question’s need to refinance maturing debt and tap capital markets for funds for growth, it provides a useful snapshot of how well the REIT in question can maintain its dividend in the near-term. Digital Realty posted $1.54 per share in core FFO last quarter (an adjusted non-GAAP figure), down 8% year-over-year but flat sequentially. In this article, we will cover Digital Realty’s short-term headwinds and why we expect that the REIT’s financial performance will rebound. Shares of DLR yield ~3.1% as of this writing. Longer term, we use our adjusted Dividend Cushion ratio (includes funds raised via expected equity issuances over the next five full fiscal years) to gauge Digital Realty’s ability to keep making good on its dividend obligations. Digital Realty has an adjusted Dividend Cushion ratio of 1.1, earning the REIT a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating. These metrics incorporate our expectations that the REIT will push through significant dividend increases over the coming years, and Digital Realty has an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Growth rating. We include shares of DLR as a holding in both our Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolios.

Nov 2, 2020

ICYMI -- Dividend Growth Strategies Struggle
Image: A large cap growth ETF (orange) has significantly outperformed an ETF tied to a dividend growth strategy, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), which mirrors the total return performance of the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. To no surprise to many members, several dividend growth strategies have faced tremendous pressure during 2020. The Journal recently wrote a piece on the topic, but from our perspective, the problem with many dividend growth strategies is that they tend to be balance-sheet agnostic and pay little attention to traditional free cash flow expectations, focusing only on the yield itself, sometimes dismissing future fundamentals in favor of historical growth trends and the inferior EPS-based dividend payout ratio. In many dividend-targeted ETFs, for example, it may not matter to the index creator whether a firm has $10 billion in net debt or $10 billion in net cash; as long as management has a track record of raising the dividend in the past, it is included. To us, however, there is a world of difference between a company that has a huge net cash position and a huge net debt position. The more excess cash on the balance sheet a dividend payer has, for example, the more secure its payout. In some cases, entities held in high-yielding ETFs don't even cover their dividends or distributions with traditional free cash flow generation, despite having ominous net debt loads. A look at the high-yielding ALPS Alerian MLP ETF, for example, shows a number of entities that are buried under a mountain of debt and are generating meager free cash flow relative to expected distributions. The lofty yield on that ETF should therefore be viewed with a very cautious eye. If the yield weren't at risk for a big cut, the market would bid up the stock, and down the yield would go. In no way should you believe that you can sleep well at night holding stocks yielding north of 10% when the current 10-year Treasury is well below 1%. The market is just not that inefficient. A dividend growth strategy can never be a passive one either. Only through constant attention to the balance sheet (net cash) and future free cash flow expectations can investors truly sleep well at night. At Valuentum, we do the balance sheet and cash flow work and summarize it succinctly in a key ratio called the Dividend Cushion ratio.

Oct 27, 2020

Crown Castle Continues to Shine
Image Shown: Crown Castle International Corp.’s growth trajectory continued in the third quarter of 2020. Image Source: Crown Castle International Corp. – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Crown Castle International Corp--3.3% yield (as of this writing)--is a real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) that owns 40,000+ cell towers, ~70,000 small cell nodes (on air or under contract) and ~80,000 route miles of fiber that support numerous networking operations all across the US. We include shares of Crown Castle as a holding in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter given its ability to generate sizable free cash flows even after investing heavily in expanding its asset base. From 2017 to 2019, Crown Castle generated ~$0.75 billion in annual free cash flows, though the firm had to tap capital markets to cover its annual common dividend obligations which averaged ~$1.75 billion during this period (its annual preferred dividend obligations averaged just under $0.1 billion during this period). While the REIT is capital market dependent, given the importance of its asset base which is primarily made up of essential infrastructure that supports telecommunications services in the US (including 5G services) and its ability to generate consistent free cash flows (rare in the REIT industry), we see Crown Castle maintaining access to both debt and equity markets at attractive rates going forward. When the REIT reported third quarter 2020 earnings on October 21, management had enough confidence in Crown Castle’s outlook to boost the firm’s quarterly dividend by 11% on a sequential basis. Though management has had to adjust Crown Castle’s 2020 guidance several times (including to the downside), largely due to headwinds created by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, the REIT still expects to generate meaningful revenue and adjusted funds from operations (‘AFFO’) growth this year.

Oct 22, 2020

News Brief: Stay at Home Stocks, REITs, Housing, Oracle, and AT&T
Image: Number of COVID-19 cases reported weekly by WHO Region, and global deaths, 30 December 2019 through 18 October 2020. Source: WHO. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage on, though the healthcare community has become more adept at reducing the incidence of death given the many treatments now available to battle the disease. We continue to stay the course with the newsletter portfolios. Many of our favorites include Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet, and PayPal, among other moaty, net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouses tied to secular growth trends. Our focus remains on the long haul. The business models of many stay-at-home stocks are solid as they continue to reap the rewards of the accelerated trends of home office use and e-commerce proliferation. Housing-related names are also benefiting as consumers adjust their lifestyles to accommodate a post-COVID-19 world. Many pockets of the economy still remain ill, and the slow fading of the attractiveness of commercial / office / apartment space may rear its ugly head as this new decade continues. As was the case with the department stores, they may hang around for years (decades) with myriad fits and starts, but it will be an uphill battle for REITs operating in these areas. We see little reason to bottom fish in airlines, cruise lines, or fickle mall-based retail, for example, but there may be select opportunities in the restaurant arena with Chipotle and Domino’s. The financials and energy sectors are two areas we continue to avoid, more generally, and they have continued to underperform.

Oct 19, 2020

Global Net Lease’s Yield Is Flashing Signs of Trouble
Image Shown: An overview of Global Net Lease’s asset base. Image Source: Global Net Lease – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Global Net Lease is a real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) focused on single tenant net-leased commercial properties in the US, Canada, and Europe. Sale and leaseback transactions are a common way the REIT grows its business. At the end of June 2020, a little less than two thirds of its annualized rental income came from properties in the US and Canada. Global Net Lease generated a little less than half of its annualized rental income from both office properties and industrial/distribution properties, with the remainder coming from retail properties. Shares of GNL yield ~10.2% on a forward-looking basis as of this writing after the REIT cut its quarterly payout in early-2020.

Sep 21, 2020

Public Storage Rebounds and Its Financials Remain Strong
Image Shown: Shares of Public Storage have recovered a considerable amount of lost ground since the pandemic-induced drop in March 2020. We continue to like Public Storage as a holding in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter and are big fans of self-storage companies with significant exposure to the US. The self-storage real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Public Storage is included as a holding in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. We strongly appreciate its free cash flows, which are relatively rare in the REIT industry given that the growth-related capital expenditures of most REIT’s tend to be enormous. Shares of PSA have rebounded strongly off their March 2020 lows and yield ~3.6% as of this writing.

Sep 21, 2020

CubeSmart Remains Rock-Solid
Image Shown: An overview of CubeSmart’s core geographical focus. We continue to like CubeSmart as a holding in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: CubeSmart – September 2020 IR Presentation. One of our favorite industries as it relates to locating high-quality high-yielding companies with promising dividend growth runways is the self-storage real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) space, particularly companies with operations primarily (if not entirely) in the US. Within this industry, CubeSmart is one of our favorites and remains a holding in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. Shares of CUBE yield ~4.0% as of this writing. The self-storage REIT continued to make good on its dividend obligations during the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, a task made easier through CubeSmart’s ability to generate meaningful free cash flows. Unlike most other REITs, REITs operating in the self-storage space tend to be able to generate substantial free cash flows, and CubeSmart is no exception as we cover in this note.

Sep 10, 2020

High Yield Dividend Income Investing in a Time of Need
Image: EpicTop10.com. The skills to successfully invest for long-term capital gains or long-term dividend growth are much different than those required for generating high yield dividend income. Income investing is a much different proposition. However, the skills do center on a similar equity evaluation process, but one that requires an acknowledgement and heightened awareness of considerably greater downside risks. Income investing, or high yield dividend income investing, should at times be considered among the riskiest forms of investing, as many high dividend-yielding securities tend to trade closer to the characteristics of junk-rated bonds than they do most net cash rich and free cash flow generating powerhouses that we like so much in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.