Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Aug 15, 2012

Dick’s Sporting Goods’ Strong Growth Continues
Dick's Sporting Goods reported strong second quarter results, but we aren't fans of shares at current levels.

May 17, 2012

Strong First-Quarter Results from Dick’s Sporting Goods Bode Well for Athletic Apparel
Dick's Sporting Goods posted strong first-quarter results, but the potential impact from encroaching online competition remains unclear. We think Nike is a much better idea for investors looking to gain exposure to the athletic retail space.

Mar 20, 2012

Though Ugg’s Probably Aren’t Dead, Deckers’ Shares Have Only Limited Upside
We outline our fundamental view on Deckers and provide our estimate of the company's fair value.

Nike Doubles Down on Its Digital Strategy
Image Shown: Shares of Nike sold off moderately on June 26 after reporting its full-year earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended May 31, 2020), though please note shares of NKE have rebounded sharply from their March 2020 lows. Over the past year shares of Nike are still up ~15% as of this writing, outpacing the 4% gain seen at the S&P 500 (SPY) before taking dividend considerations into account. Nike is performing well operationally as its digital strategy has helped mitigate some of the headwinds created by the ongoing pandemic. The retailer’s strong balance sheet provides ample support to ride out the storm while being able to maintain its current dividend policy. Shares of NKE yield ~1.1% as of this writing, and we give Nike an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Safety rating due to its rock-solid Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.4. Please note these forward-looking indicators factor in double-digit per share payout growth over the coming fiscal years. We give Nike an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Growth rating as well.

Lululemon Supported by Strong Digital Sales
Image Source: Lululemon Athletica Inc – Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Infographic. On June 11, Lululemon Athletica reported first quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 3, 2020) that missed consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company’s strong digital sales were offset by the negative impact of containment efforts to stop the spread of coronavirus (‘COVID-19’), namely store closures (both company-owned and third-party retail locations). Shares of LULU are still up comfortably year-to-date as of this writing, in large part due to its pristine balance sheet and past investments in its digital infrastructure and digital sales channels. We covered these two aspects of its business model and why that would be a source of strength during these challenging times back in March 2020 (link here).

Under Armour Potentially Faces a Serious Liquidity Crunch
Image Shown: Under Armour Inc may face a serious liquidity crunch if its creditors don’t extend the maturity length of the borrowings under its revolving credit facility. On May 11, Under Armour reported earnings for the first quarter of 2020 with its GAAP revenues declining by 23% year-over-year, and management attributed ~1500 basis points of that decline to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. On the flip side, Under Armour’s GAAP gross margins improved by ~110 basis points year-over-year due to reduced pricing discounts, though COVID-19 weighed against the company’s performance in this area as well. Under Armour reported a GAAP net loss of $590 million in the first quarter of 2020 due to rising operating expenses (with an eye towards marketing spend) and major impairment and restructuring charges. Without the impairment and restructuring charges, Under Armour still reported a non-GAAP adjusted net loss of $152 million. All in all, it was a tough quarter, and it’s only going to get worse (at least in the short-term).