Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jul 7, 2022

2022 Oil & Gas Market Update: “The Outlook for Crude Oil Prices Remains Quite Bullish”
In our view, the outlook for crude oil prices remains quite bullish which in turn should enable Chevron and Exxon Mobil, two of our favorite newsletter portfolio ideas, to churn out “gobs” of free cash flow over the coming quarters. Additionally, both Chevron and Exxon Mobil have substantial exposure to natural gas prices, in part through their enormous LNG export facilities in Australia, which should further support their cash flow generating abilities. We will caution here that a key downside risk the global energy complex faces is potential demand destruction as consumers adjust their lifestyles accordingly to reduce their energy and fuel bills. With that in mind, we have yet to see energy demand falter in a meaningful way, though we are keeping a close eye on the state of the global economy.

Oct 15, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week October 15
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Aug 15, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Realty Income Is on the Rebound
Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – August 2021 IR Presentation. Realty Income, “The Monthly Dividend Company,” has paid out a dividend over the past 610+ consecutive months and shares of O yield a nice ~4.0% as of this writing. We are big fans of its pending merger with VEREIT and its international expansion plans as these endeavors will significantly improve both Realty Income’s growth runway and the resilience of its business model going forward. We continue to like Realty Income as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and appreciate the REIT’s latest guidance boost. On a final note, we are keeping an eye on its pending merger with VEREIT.

May 15, 2021

Two High-Quality REITs with Promising Outlooks: Digital Realty (DLR) and Realty Income (O)
Image Shown: An overview of Digital Realty Trust Inc’s expansive geographical footprint. Image Source: Digital Realty Trust Inc – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. The real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) industry is steadily recovering from the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Generally speaking, rent collection rates are on the rise as vaccine distribution efforts are helping enable the economy to slowly open back up, allowing many commercial activities to resume in earnest. Let's have a look at the latest earnings reports from two high-quality REITs in this article.

Feb 26, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 26
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Sep 10, 2020

High Yield Dividend Income Investing in a Time of Need
Image: EpicTop10.com. The skills to successfully invest for long-term capital gains or long-term dividend growth are much different than those required for generating high yield dividend income. Income investing is a much different proposition. However, the skills do center on a similar equity evaluation process, but one that requires an acknowledgement and heightened awareness of considerably greater downside risks. Income investing, or high yield dividend income investing, should at times be considered among the riskiest forms of investing, as many high dividend-yielding securities tend to trade closer to the characteristics of junk-rated bonds than they do most net cash rich and free cash flow generating powerhouses that we like so much in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

May 22, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 22
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

May 13, 2020

Realty Income Signals Turbulence Ahead, Shores Up Liquidity Position
Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. On May 4, the real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Realty Income Corp posted first-quarter 2020 earnings that saw its adjusted funds from operations (‘AFFO’) per share jump by over 7% year-over-year, hitting $0.78 last quarter. Realty Income pays out a monthly dividend, and shares of O yield ~5.1% as of this writing. We like the REIT’s business model, which invests in single-tenant commercial properties, and view Realty Income as well-positioned to ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. However, we caution that its near-term financial performance will come under fire from some of its tenants no longer being able to (or willing to) pay rent due in part to the economic downturn. As roughly half of its tenants carry investment-grade credit ratings, Realty Income is in a better position than some of its peers. Most of Realty Income’s tenants have continued to pay rent during the pandemic, at least during the early stages of the crisis, and the REIT is working with its troubled tenants to find a solution that suites the interests of both parties.

Mar 26, 2020

Jobless Claims Spike; Restaurants, REITs In Trouble
Image: DOL. “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 2,898,450 in the week ending March 21, an increase of 2,647,034 (or 1,052.9 percent) from the previous week.” On March 26, the Department of Labor reported a surge in jobless claims for the week ending March 21 to 3.28 million, a number that “shatters the Great Recession peak of 665,000 in March 2009 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982,” according to CNBC. The economic situation remains dire as the White House struggles to contain COVID-19 amid what could become one of the worst economic periods since the Great Depression, or one that can turn into the next Great Depression. We also address a couple questions from members regarding Cracker Barrel and the REITs, more generally. Our team is monitoring the stimulus bill in Congress, which just passed the Senate last night. We’ll have more to say about restaurants and REITs as our team pours over the bill and assesses long-run implications. We think this bear-market rally may be short-lived, as we don’t think we’ll see stabilization in the markets until about 6-9 months before a vaccine is widely available, and that may imply a market bottom that may still be 3-6 months ahead. Moral hazard continues to run rampant. The market is bouncing back on what looks to be expectations of an unlimited Fed/Treasury/Congress put, as well as new expectations for hyperinflationary pressures in the longer run in the midst of runaway government spending. Stocks are therefore in demand. We remain skeptical of the sustainability of this bounce, however.