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Valuentum Commentary
May 19, 2025
3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 13, 2025
UnitedHealth CEO Steps Down; Company Suspends Guidance
Image Source: TradingView. UnitedHealth Group announced that its CEO Andrew Witty will step down for personal reasons. Taking his place is Stephen Hemsley, who served as the company CEO from 2006-2017. UnitedHealth also suspended its recently-lowered 2025 outlook “as care activity continued to accelerate while also broadening to more types of benefit offerings than seen in the first quarter, and the medical costs of many Medicare Advantage beneficiaries new to UnitedHealthcare remained higher than expected.” Though the company expects to return to growth in 2026, we’re putting the company under review while we reevaluate our fair value estimate for shares. UnitedHealth remains an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. May 6, 2025
Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. Apr 17, 2025
UnitedHealth Group Lowers 2025 Outlook
Image: UnitedHealth’s shares were pummeled after it lowered its 2025 earnings outlook. During the first quarter of 2025, UnitedHealth Group’s cash flow from operations came in at $5.5 billion, and the firm returned nearly $5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. As it relates to the drivers negatively impacting its 2025 guidance, management noted that it “believes these factors to be highly addressable over the course of this year as well as it looks ahead to 2026.” Though we didn’t like the downward revision to its 2025 earnings outlook, UnitedHealth remains a cash cow, and we continue to like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We value shares north of $600 each. Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Jan 17, 2025
UnitedHealth Group’s 2025 Outlook Remains Robust
Image: UnitedHealth Group’s shares have been choppy the past couple years. UnitedHealth Group reaffirmed its outlook for 2025 that it established in December 2024. Revenues for 2025 are anticipated in the range of $450-$455 billion (the midpoint below consensus of $455.6 billion), net earnings are targeted in the range of $28.15-$28.65, and adjusted net earnings are expected in the range of $29.50-$30.00 per share (the midpoint below consensus of $29.86 per share). Cash flow from operations is anticipated to increase to the range of $32-$33 billion, up materially from 2024. We continue to like UnitedHealth’s growth potential and free cash flow generation, and the company remains a core holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Dec 19, 2024
Shares of UnitedHealth Group and Vertex Pharma Sour
Image Source: Rodrigo Senna cc by 2.0. As of right now, we continue to monitor the situation with UnitedHealth, but the risks have substantially increased. We have no plans to remove it from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio at this time as we await news flow to settle down. As for Vertex, we continue to like its established position in cystic fibrosis and its opportunity in gene-editing therapies as well as a new class of medicine for acute pain that’s without the limitations of opioids. Though the news regarding suzetrigine wasn’t what the market was hoping for, the company’s pipeline is progressing nicely. Oct 15, 2024
UnitedHealth Remains a Free Cash Flow Generating Powerhouse
Image: UnitedHealth’s shares have done well the past few years, but a gloomy outlook for 2025 has prompted a selloff. Looking to 2024, UnitedHealth Group lowered the high end of its guidance to the range of $27.50-$27.75 compared to $27.50-$28.00 previously due in part to higher than expected business disruption impacts for the affected Change Healthcare services. On the conference call, the company noted that its “2025 adjusted profit could be $30 per share (Seeking Alpha),” which was below consensus of $31.17 per share for the year. Though its medical care ratio advanced in the quarter and it continues to navigate the impact of cyberattack and direct response costs, we’re huge fans of UnitedHealth’s robust free cash flow generation, and we still like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. Jul 16, 2024
UnitedHealth Group Reports Messy Second Quarter Results
Image: UnitedHealth Group’s shares have been choppy since the beginning of 2023. UnitedHealth Group’s second quarter results were quite messy with a lot of moving parts, but cash flow remains resilient and the firm’s dividend growth trajectory remains solid. Back in June, the firm raised its annual dividend rate by 12%, marking the 15th consecutive year that UnitedHealth has increased it at a double-digit pace. UnitedHealth ended the quarter with $75.1 billion in total debt and $77.4 billion in cash and investments. We continue to include UnitedHealth Group as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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