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Valuentum Commentary
Sep 5, 2018
There Is Milk At The Store
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." -- Winston Churchill Aug 1, 2018
Apple Soars! $200+ Per Share!
We continue to like Apple. It has been a bright spot in an otherwise challenging calendar second-quarter earnings season. Jul 5, 2018
In The News: Facebook, China and the Semiconductor Complex
Facebook gets a new Street high price target, while news ebbs and flows regarding US-China tech relations. Feb 9, 2018
Systemic Risk
Image Source: Maximo Santana. We believe the next crisis will not be a banking crisis, but one of a breakdown in market structure. Feb 7, 2018
Hasbro, Boeing Pop as Market Bounces Back
Image Source: US Missile Defense Agency. June 22, 2014 - The Missile Defense Agency's Flight Test 06b Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014. The markets have finally been getting the volatility that we’ve all been waiting for, and we don’t like the idea that the market is now trading more like a cryptocurrency. Granted, it’s important to stay focused over a long-term time horizon, which irons out the ups and downs, but there’s just something about 1,000+ daily swings on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that really doesn’t sit well with us, regardless of what that implies with respect to the percentage change. Can you imagine -- All of this over just a couple basis point increase in the 10-year and one very, very small ETF losing most of its value? What if something truly material happens? This market is fragile. Feb 5, 2018
The Sell Off February 5 Remains Minimal Compared to the Gains of Past Years
Image shown: The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) share price performance since mid-2009. The pullback the past few days hasn’t amounted to much, but it has caught the attention of investors. Recent equity market price declines don’t add up to much compared to the huge gains of recent years. Typical bear markets result in the evaporation of nearly 40% of investor wealth, on average. Feb 2, 2018
What Goes Up… Well, You Know the Rest
Groundhog Day proved to be painful for the markets. Though a few companies disappointed with respect to their earnings reports, the real reason for the sell-off is two-fold: the market is overpriced by most metrics and Treasury rates, used within valuation frameworks, are rising. Jan 14, 2018
2018 Starts Out with a Bang!
Image Shown: An ETF that measures momentum (MTUM) has done considerably better than the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2017. Among its top 5 holdings are Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA)—newsletter holdings that have had excellent value characteristics along the way. Visa (V) is also included in its top 10 holdings. Even some the most bullish and optimistic investors have been surprised by the resiliency of today’s market environment. Why does it seem appropriate to remind members that the stock market doesn’t always go straight up with almost no volatility? Dec 29, 2017
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Image Source: CreditDebitPro via Flickr. There’s a lot happening to impact the markets these days. Let’s cover some key economic data, stocks that may see a fundamental boost from Hurricane Florence, and we’ll reiterate our view that trade tantrums between the US and China will likely not amount to much of a negative impact on global economic activity, despite huge headline numbers.