Member LoginDividend CushionValue Trap
|
Valuentum
Reports
Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for
any changes.
Latest
Valuentum Commentary
Nov 28, 2023
Crown Castle Continues to Languish
Image: Crown Castle’s shares have not fared well through 2023, and we’ll be looking to remove them from the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio in coming months. Crown Castle benefits from attractive tower economics as it can scale customers across its shared infrastructure to drive increased profitability, but the company's massive net cash position continues to weigh on our enthusiasm of the company. Shares of the firm may get a bounce as spot interest rates may continue to ease in the near term, but we’ll be looking to remove it from the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio in the coming months. We also plan to remove the Vanguard Real Estate ETF from that portfolio, too. Nov 10, 2023
Use Both the Dividend Cushion Ratio (Probability of a Dividend Cut) and the Qualitative Dividend Ratings in Your Assessment of the Payout
The Dividend Cushion ratio ranks companies on the probability of a dividend cut in the longer run, while the qualitative ratings in part assess the outlook for the health of the payout in the near term in the context of management’s willingness to preserve and raise the payout. Since the systematic application of the Dividend Cushion ratio across our coverage in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90% at identifying the risks of a dividend cut in advance of the event. Nov 9, 2023
Disney’s Free Cash Flow Is Expected to Surge But A Strong Recovery Is Already Priced In
Image Source: Valuentum. On November 8, Disney reported improved fourth-quarter results for its fiscal 2023. Revenue advanced 5% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, and the firm drove non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to $0.82 from $0.30 in the prior year period. The company’s Disney+ streaming service added 7 million core customers in the quarter, and its commentary that its streaming business would reach profitability in the fourth quarter of next fiscal year was welcome. Cost savings will be key, and the executive team expects free cash flow to grow significantly in fiscal 2024 versus the most recently reported year. All of this was great news, but a massive recovery in free cash flow is already factored into its price. Our $81 fair value estimate remains unchanged. Sep 20, 2023
ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions. Sep 8, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 8
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Sep 4, 2023
Report Updates -- Did You Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater?
The markets are finally making sense again, and we remain huge fans of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth. Though entities are starting to register high ratings on the Valuentum Buying Index, we’re not pulling the trigger on either Alibaba or Korn/Ferry in light of the tremendous risks related to U.S-China relations for Alibaba and the lack of fundamental catalysts for Korn/Ferry. That said, should these firms’ technical and momentum indicators shape up, their equity prices could really catch a bid, in our view. The newsletter portfolios continue to deliver in a big way, not only generating outperformance relative to the market-cap weighted S&P 500 during 2022, but also positioning well for the boom in big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth that has materialized in 2023. We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. Jul 24, 2023
AT&T: A High Yield Dividend Disaster, Now An ESG Nightmare
Image: AT&T’s shares continue to disappoint. We’re not interested in AT&T at all and believe that shares may remain under significant pressure until 1) material top-line growth resumes, 2) the firm’s capital-intensity lessens, 3) free cash flow improves significantly, 4) dividend increases resume 5) its leverage improves and 6) there is more visibility related to the potential contingent liabilities associated with lead-covered cables. We doubt all six of these things will happen, and therefore we believe the best days are likely behind AT&T. Jul 20, 2023
Stock Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website. Jul 15, 2023
Subscribe to the Valuentum ESG Newsletter!
There may be no greater or better investment than becoming more exposed to the sustainable trend of environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing, where ESG research points to key risks of a company that could have tremendous implications on its intrinsic value or fair value estimate distribution. Subscribe to the monthly Valuentum ESG Newsletter today! Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on
this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any
security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s
accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or
omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts
no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a
registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees,
and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
Image: Stocks with low valuation multiples have trailed the broader S&P 500 (orange) considerably since the depths of the Great Financial Crisis. Today, with all the readily available information and data out there, it is far more likely the case that a company with a low P/E ratio actually deserves it, and a firm with an outsized dividend yield just holds a lot of net debt on their books. Investing in low P/E stocks or stocks with low valuation multiples without considering their intrinsic values (i.e. fair value estimates) may result in owning a basket of value traps. Investors may be attracted to these types of stocks for their low P/E ratios and hefty dividend yields, but just having a low P/E ratio and a high dividend yield doesn’t a good stock make. If investing were this easy, so-called “value stocks” wouldn’t have underperformed the market significantly for more than a decade and a half now.