Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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May 15, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 15
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Mar 25, 2020

Gut-Wrenching Volatility and Credit Facility Panic
Image shown: Stock markets have never been this volatile in history. Our 2,350-2,750 fair value on the S&P 500 remains unchanged, and we could see aggressive panic/forced selling to 2,000 on the broad market index (the S&P 500 closed at 2,447 on March 24). Long-term investors with time horizons greater than 10 years may have already been nibbling at this market, using dollar cost averaging strategies and may benefit from any bear market rally. These long-term investors have a keen eye toward retaining dry powder in the event the worst of the swoon is still ahead. Our additional options commentary can be added to your membership here.

Mar 15, 2020

Fed Cuts 100 Basis Points, Launches More QE
“Now, stocks and other assets are being sold, some indiscriminately. It is truly becoming a stock pickers market as opposed to a quant-led and index-led market. It takes a different kind of bravery to buy on massive down days and one must have conviction in their research that the company will not go away if massive downside scenarios do in fact emerge.” – Matthew Warren. In this piece, we cover our assessment of what the global markets might be facing in a bull-case, base-case, and bear-case scenario. Our base case is a substantial recession in the US and a financial crisis of some unknown magnitude.

Mar 9, 2020

Oil Prices Collapse, Reiterating 2,350-2,750 S&P 500 Target Range; Credit Crunch Looming?
From Value Trap: “The banking sector was not the only sector that faced considerable selling pressure during the Financial Crisis of the late 2000s, of course. Other companies that required funding to maintain their business operations faced severe liquidity risk, or a situation where refinancing, or rolling over debt, might be difficult to do on fair terms, making such financing prohibitive in some cases. Those that faced outsize debt maturities during the most severe months of the credit crunch faced a real threat of Chapter 11 restructuring had the lending environment completely seized. In thinking about share prices as a range of probable fair value outcomes, equity prices tend to face pressure as downside probabilities such as a liquidity event are baked into the market price and at a higher probability. Because debtholders are higher up on the capital structure than equity holders, shareholders can sometimes get nothing in the event of a bankruptcy filing. Entities that are extremely capital-market dependent, or those that require ongoing access to new capital to fund operations, often face the greatest risk of the worst equity price declines during deteriorating credit market conditions.” Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation, published 2018

Feb 7, 2020

Update on Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: 31,000+ Infections, 630+ Deaths
Image Source: 2019-nCoV, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The number of infections and deaths related to the Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus has surged since our last update, but we maintain our view that investors should keep a level head. We continue to wait to add protection to the newsletter portfolios as the market absorbs a massive liquidity injection from the PBOC.

Jan 31, 2020

Coronavirus May Trigger Long-Anticipated Global Recession
Image: Wuhan New Coronavirus. This was the catalyst that nobody was expecting, a novel coronavirus that nobody had in their economic models. We think global economic activity is slowing as we speak, and the spread of the virus may only accelerate in mainland China and elsewhere. Investors should keep a level head and perhaps think about adding protection to their portfolios before it becomes too expensive.

Sep 6, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 6
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Aug 8, 2019

Booking Holdings Pops, Still Underpriced
Image Source: Valuentum’s forecasts for Booking Holdings’ free cash flow.Booking Holdings, formerly Priceline, reported solid second-quarter 2019 results. We continue to believe this Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding is undervalued. Our fair value estimate stands at ~$2,130+.

Jul 24, 2019

Hasbro Posts a Great Quarter, Shares Fully Valued
Image Source: Hasbro. Hasbro posted a great quarter with top-line growth and margin expansion highlighting the powerful pull its brands and properties have with consumers, both in North America and abroad. With several upcoming catalysts in the fourth quarter, Hasbro may be able to follow up a strong first half with a solid second half performance.

Sep 7, 2018

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 7
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.