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Intel’s Huge Expected Capital Spending Gives Dividend Growth Investors Pause

publication date: Oct 25, 2021
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Image: Intel has advanced nicely during the past several years, but more recently, its choppy stock behavior is reflective of the market having trouble figuring out the future direction of this tech behemoth, particularly in light of encroaching competition and huge expected capital spending growth. Shares offer investors a healthy 2.8% dividend yield, however, which gives the stock a sturdy foundation for the time being. 

In October 2020, we decided to remove Intel from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as competition was heating up and the firm’s balance sheet started to lose its luster. Weakening free cash flow due to a huge expected capital-spending build now makes Intel incrementally less attractive of an idea, though we note shares continue to trade within our fair value estimate range ($45-$67), which may be revised slightly lower on the next update. A dividend yield of ~2.8% is supported by future free cash flow in the near term, but there may be more clouds on the horizon (and investors should expect a lower Dividend Cushion ratio upon the next update, too). We’re comfortable being on the sidelines as there are so many other investment considerations that fit the financial bill better, in our view--namely those capital-appreciation and dividend-growth considerations with strong net cash positions and strong future expected free cash flow growth.

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