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The Puzzling Attack on Alibaba

publication date: Sep 14, 2015
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Alibaba is not a “dot-bomb” like the infamous blow-ups in the US in the late 1990s/early 2000s. The Chinese e-commerce giant is significantly profitable and free cash flow positive, and growth prospects are tremendous. Calling for a ~15 times multiple on next year’s earnings, as a large publisher has done, where next year’s earnings are but a fraction of the company’s earnings power 5-10 years from now is an attempt, in our view, to punish the stock at a vulnerable time when global economies are shuddering and the Chinese equity markets continue to face immense pressure. Our estimate of the firm’s long-term intrinsic value is significantly higher than its current market price, but the mounting proliferation of fear may very well hurt shares in the near term.

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