Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 11, 2020

Our Thoughts on Newmont’s Bright Outlook
Image Shown: Newmont Corporation’s gold reserves are extensive and should support the gold miner’s ability to generate meaningful cash flows over the years and decades to come. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – August 2020 IR Presentation. As of this writing, shares of NEM yield ~1.5% on a forward-looking basis, and we view its forward-looking dividend coverage as rock-solid given Newmont has a Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.2, earning the firm an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Safety rating. In our view, Newmont offers investors a combination of income growth and capital appreciation upside, and we continue to like Newmont as a holding with a modest weighting in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Our Dividend Cushion ratio and Dividend Safety rating factors in our expectations that Newmont will steadily grow its per share dividend over the coming years.

Sep 10, 2020

High Yield Dividend Income Investing in a Time of Need
Image: EpicTop10.com. The skills to successfully invest for long-term capital gains or long-term dividend growth are much different than those required for generating high yield dividend income. Income investing is a much different proposition. However, the skills do center on a similar equity evaluation process, but one that requires an acknowledgement and heightened awareness of considerably greater downside risks. Income investing, or high yield dividend income investing, should at times be considered among the riskiest forms of investing, as many high dividend-yielding securities tend to trade closer to the characteristics of junk-rated bonds than they do most net cash rich and free cash flow generating powerhouses that we like so much in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Sep 10, 2020

Good News for Microsoft
Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2020 IR PowerPoint Presentation. Microsoft offers investors a combination of income growth and capital appreciation upside. Shares of MSFT yield ~1.0% as of this writing and given its large net cash position and high quality cash flow profile, we see room for Microsoft to push through annual double-digit (per share) dividend increases over the coming years. Our fair value estimate for Microsoft sits at $216 per share (above where shares are trading at as of this writing) with room for upside as the top end of our fair value estimate ranges sit at $259 per share.

Sep 9, 2020

Our Thoughts on the Widespread Launch of 5G Services
Image Shown: The evolution of wireless networks and telecommunications technology over the years. Image Source: Intel Corporation – November 2019 State of 5G Presentation. The rollout of 5G telecommunication networks is upon us and we want to draw our members' attention to some of the key companies with meaningful exposure to this space. Many are excited about what opportunities 5G technology could enable. To ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic we prefer large-cap tech companies with pristine balance sheets, quality cash flow profiles, and firms whose growth outlooks are underpinned by secular growth tailwinds. Between Broadcom and Qualcomm, we are keeping a closer eye on Qualcomm given its more manageable net debt load and the company’s aforementioned near-term catalysts.

Sep 3, 2020

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years
Image Source: http://www.epictop10.com/. "When I left as director in the equity and credit department at Morningstar in 2011, I thought I knew a whole heck of a lot about investing. I felt like I was one in the top 5-10 in the world as it relates to the category of practical knowledge of enterprise valuation (maybe include Koller at McKinsey, Mauboussin at Counterpoint, and Damadoran at Stern on this list). After all, I oversaw the valuation infrastructure of a department that used the process extensively, and the firm was among just a few that used enterprise valuation systematically. Then, at Valuentum, our small team would go on to build/update 20,000+ more enterprise valuation models. There can always be someone else out there, of course, but I don't think anybody has worked within the DCF model as much as I have across so many different companies. That said, through the past near-10 years managing Valuentum's simulated newsletter portfolios, I've also learned a number of things to become an even better portfolio manager." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

Sep 3, 2020

Schlumberger and Liberty Oilfield Services Make a Deal
Image Shown: Schlumberger NV is combining its OneStim business with Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. The picture above is an overview of the combined company on a pro forma basis. Image Source: Liberty Oilfield Services Inc – Schlumberger to Contribute OneStim to Liberty IR Presentation. On September 1, Schlumberger and Liberty Oilfield Services announced that Schlumberger would combine its onshore hydraulic fracturing business in the US and Canada, OneStim, with Liberty Oilfield Services. That includes Schlumberger’s pressure pumping and pumpdown perforating businesses in the relevant regions, and its frac sand business in the Permian Basin (West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico). In return, Schlumberger is getting a 37% equity stake in Liberty Oilfield Services (on a pro forma basis) which primarily offers pressure pumping and other oilfield services to upstream companies operating in onshore US markets. The day the news broke, shares of LBRT were up 36% during normal trading hours while shares of SLB were down 1%, as investors clearly saw Liberty Oilfield Services as the big winner from this industry consolidation.

Sep 3, 2020

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.

Sep 2, 2020

Our Thoughts on Rackspace and Zoom Video Communications
Image Source: Rackspace Technology Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has fundamentally disrupted daily activities for households all over the globe, which has changed the way individuals work and communicate with each other. Now many are working from home, doing schoolwork and attending virtual classes from home, and seeking to stay connected with friends and family while at home. Software-as-a-Service (‘SaaS’) companies that provide solutions to the problems created by COVID-19 are well-positioned to ride out the storm, aided by their asset-light and highly scalable business models.

Aug 28, 2020

TikTok Up for Grabs
Image Shown: ByteDance may be forced to sell the US operations of TikTok, and there are plenty of potential suitors out there with deep pockets. On August 27, Walmart announced it was in discussions with Microsoft Corp about acquiring the US operations of popular short-video-oriented social firm TikTok from Beijing-based ByteDance. Given that Microsoft noted back on August 2 it was continuing discussions concerning a potential deal for TikTok’s US, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian operations, it is likely Walmart would be interested in acquiring an economic interest in those assets as well. Additionally, a consortium led by Oracle Corp has reportedly made a $20.0 billion bid for TikTok according to The Wrap, with $10.0 billion made up in cash and $10.0 billion of Oracle stock along with a provision that would see Oracle give ByteDance 50% of the annual profits from TikTok over a two-year period. Please note that none of this is for certain, though we are intrigued by the news. Oracle is reportedly joined by General Atlantic and Sequoia Capital, two venture capital firms that are also investors in ByteDance.

Aug 26, 2020

Papa John’s Posts Stellar Comparable Store Sales Growth
Image Shown: Shares of Papa John’s International Inc have surged upwards year-to date as of this writing. One company that has proven to be very resilient during the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic is Papa John’s International. We significantly raised our fair value estimate for shares of PZZA back in June 2020. As of this writing, Papa John’s is trading right at the top of our fair value estimate range which sits at $99 per share of PZZA. The company has an asset-light business model and a quality cash flow profile, a product of its focus on franchise operations, though Papa John’s does own some of its store locations. As of December 29, 2019, Papa John’s had 5,395 restaurant locations worldwide operating in 49 countries and territories. Out of those locations, ~89% were franchised and the rest were either owned by the company or by a joint-venture the company had an economic stake in. Papa John’s success largely stems from past major investments in its digital presence and a heavy focus on home delivery and carryout offerings. With the pandemic forcing households to stay in and many restaurants to close, Papa John’s rose to the occasion to meet rising consumer demand.