Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 16, 2022

Efficacy of the Dividend Cushion Ratio
The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%.

Nov 10, 2022

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print
Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also not ruling out a Santa Claus rally through the end of the year. Merry Dow Jones, as they say!

Nov 9, 2022

ALERT: Replacing Disney with Republic Services in BIN Portfolio
Image Source: Valuentum. With content costs on the rise and the potential for the streaming business to become irrational as rivals fight for the incremental customer, Disney has a tough road ahead of it, in our view. Its ‘Parks, Experiences and Products’ segment is recovering nicely from the COVID-19 lockdowns, but losses in its ‘Media and Entertainment Distribution’ business remain very concerning in a difficult advertising environment. Disney has already cut its dividend payout, and while the firm remains free cash flow positive, we’re not fans of its massive net debt position. Our updated fair value estimate of Disney now stands at $93 per share, and it no longer fits the bill of a best idea. We’re replacing it with Republic Services in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The change will be reflected in the next edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter.

Nov 7, 2022

We’ve Updated Our Fair Value Estimate of Boeing; Has Aerospace Bottomed?
Image: Boeing is expecting to turn the corner with respect to positive free cash flow in 2022 and grow it to ~$10 billion annually by 2025/2026. We think this is achievable. Image Source: Boeing. The breakout of COVID-19 wreaked havoc on the airline business and the commercial aircraft-making business alike. But has the commercial aerospace industry finally bottomed?

Nov 6, 2022

Shares of Lithium Producer Albemarle Are Soaring So Far In 2022
Image: Albemarle's shares have rocketed higher the past few years and are soaring during 2022. We think Albemarle remains a great fit for ESG-related investment considerations, and we’re sticking with shares in the ESG Newsletter portfolio following the company’s third-quarter results, released November 2. The lithium producer remains well-positioned, and its growth rates remain fabulous in an undersupplied market. Prices for lithium can be volatile at times, but Albemarle’s financial leverage remains manageable, and the firm expects to churn out free cash flow during 2022 as it continues to invest aggressively in its business and pay out dividends to shareholders. Albemarle’s fundamental and relative share-pricing strength have been a sight to see thus far in 2022. We still like shares of Albemarle based on the high end of our fair value estimate range.

Nov 1, 2022

Phillips 66: A Huge Winner in 2022
Image Source: Phillips 66. Shares of Phillips 66 have soared more than 40% this year, and we believe there is still upside on the basis of the high end of our fair value estimate range ($140 per share). The company’s equity has been mighty volatile this year, however, sporting a 52-week range of ~$67-$111, so investors should continue to expect large swings. Right now, things in the energy markets are favorable, and we see no reason to sour on PSX shares at the moment. The company yields ~3.7% at the time of this writing.

Oct 24, 2022

Chip Stocks -- Geopolitical Uncertainty Heightens in China; ASML, QCOM Still Strong Long-Term Considerations, But Expect Near-Term Fundamental Weakness
Image Source: The U.S. Department of Commerce. The global economic environment continues to reel from heightened inflation, which is pressuring consumer discretionary spending, but geopolitical uncertainty remains at a fever pitch. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unsettled investors, but the back-and-forth between the U.S. and China has chipmakers in the crosshairs. On October 7, 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report aimed to restrict China’s ability to attain advanced computer chip technology. We expect a downward revision to our fair value estimates across the chip space, but many of their refreshed fair value estimates will remain within their existing fair value estimate ranges. We expect a downward revision to our fair value estimates across the chip space, but many of their refreshed fair value estimates will remain within their existing fair value estimate ranges. Qualcomm will report fourth-quarter results November 2, 2022, and we’ll have more to say after the report. We recently dove into ASML’s quarterly report for the period ending October 3, which wasn’t too bad. Of note, ASML indicated that the export restrictions won’t be as punitive for them as many believe given its headquarters in the Netherlands. Though our newsletter portfolio "exposure" to the chip space is small, we'll be watching fundamental performance across the group closely.

Oct 20, 2022

Philip Morris Is One of Our Favorite High-Yielding Income Generation Ideas
Image Shown: Philip Morris International Inc expects alternative nicotine products will grow at a robust pace over the coming years, with an eye towards heated tobacco units and oral nicotine products. By capitalizing on those opportunities, the company aims to diversify its revenues away from traditional cigarette sales. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – 2021 Investor Day Event Presentation. Philip Morris is a strong cash flow generator with ample pricing power and a bright growth outlook. Underlying demand for its IQOS heated tobacco offerings remains robust and demand for its traditional cigarette offerings is holding up well, even in the face of substantial inflationary pressures weighing negatively on consumer spending power around the global. Philip Morris’ near term guidance indicates that it should remain a strong free cash flow generator in 2022, allowing the firm to stay on top of its payout obligations. Management remains committed to rewarding income seeking shareholders, and we continue to like exposure to shares of Philip Morris in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 18, 2022

BIN Portfolio ALERT: Removing META, Adding to XLE, Adding MCD and PEP
Image Source: Valuentum. This market is not going to get easier, in our view, and we still believe that 2023 may mark the bottom before a return to the path toward new highs again. However, the erratic volatile trading the past few weeks has us thinking that this is not a market focused on fundamentals, and therefore, we have to hedge our bets accordingly. With “alpha” otherwise we would have missed carved out by "raising" cash in late August before the latest swoon, we’ll now approach newsletter portfolio protection with put option considerations going forward. The changes made today will be reflected in the November 15 edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Oct 16, 2022

The Valuentum Learning Center
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