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Latest Valuentum Commentary
Jun 24, 2020
Steel Dynamics Bets Big on North America’s Industrial Economy
Image Source: Steel Dynamics Inc – June 2020 IR Presentation. Investor sentiment towards the steel industry is rebounding as the medium- and long-term outlook for global industrial activity has improved markedly since March 2020. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has significantly hampered near-term industrial activity, though major fiscal stimulus packages (made feasible through major monetary stimulus programs) launched in various developed nations could provide some relief. Shares of Steel Dynamics have recovered meaningfully since their March 2020 lows and are trading a tad below our fair value estimate as of this writing. Shares of STLD yield ~3.6% on an annualized forward-looking basis as of this writing and we give the steel maker a Dividend Cushion ratio of 1.3x providing for a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating. The company has made great strides in improving its financial position over the past several years. We will first provide some background on the fiscal stimulus measures that have either been approved and or proposed in key economies across the world, before digging deeper into Steel Dynamics.
Dec 3, 2019
Cleveland-Cliffs Buying AK Steel Through All-Stock Transaction
Image Shown: A tale of two charts, with Cleveland-Cliffs Inc in blue and AK Steel Holding Corporation in orange, after the announcement was that that the former would acquire the latter in an all-stock deal.On December 3, Cleveland-Cliffs agreed to acquire AK Steel Holding Corporation through an all-stock deal, creating a vertically integrated producer of iron ore and steel products in the US. Cleveland-Cliffs operates three iron ore mines in Michigan and Minnesota, along with a hot briquetted iron production plant in Ohio that’s under-construction, and AK steel operates steel mills in North America along with related facilities in Western Europe.
Nov 7, 2019
Nucor Is One of the Best in a Bad Business
Image Source: Nucor Corporation - June 2019 IR Presentation. We aren’t adding Nucor to any newsletter portfolio at this time given the ongoing synchronized slowdown in global economic growth, especially on the industrial side of things, as shares of NUE already trade near our fair value estimate (and risks appeared skewed to the downside). Nucor is one of the best in the business, but business can be just downright terrible during a recession or a slow growth economy given existing overseas competition and declining North American demand in the event auto sales, construction activity, and other economic activities slow down. Geopolitical and trade events will continue to loom large over the steel industry going forward.
Nov 3, 2019
Our Reports on Stocks in the Steel Industry
Image Source: Irene Grassi. Our reports on stocks in the Steel industry can be found in this article. Reports include AKS, GGB, MT, NUE, PKX, STLD, X.
Mar 22, 2018
Trump Targets China with Tariffs
Image: Shanghai, China (December 2016), Andrey Filippov. Stock markets in the US are slowly building in the prospect of retaliation (a “trade war”) from China, as a result of President Trump’s new tariffs. We maintain our view that the stock market has been frothy for some time, and the recent volatility may just be the beginning of a reversion to normalized valuations, with or without concerns about global trade.
Mar 7, 2018
Protectionists Gaining Control, Implications on Europe and China
It looks like the US-imposed tariffs are moving forward, and we’re starting to hear chatter about retaliation from Europe. Could China be next? Canada and Mexico may be exempt from the tariffs, however.
Mar 1, 2018
Trump’s Tariffs Ignite Concerns about Protectionism, Rising Input Costs
Image Source: Michael Vadon. President Trump is making true on his promise to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries. Input costs may move higher for many global industrials, and the long-term implications of protectionist policy will be tested. We’re not expecting retaliation, but we can’t rule it out either. Rising rates remain our primary concern.
Feb 27, 2018
Buffett’s Berkshire, Corporate Buybacks on Pace for Record; Lithium, Steel Prices on the Move
Image Source: Berkshire Hathaway, Shareholder Letter (2017). “Fifteen common stock investments at year end that had the largest market value.” “The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own.” – Warren Buffett, Shareholder Letter (2017)
Feb 23, 2018
In the News: General Mills, Realty Income, Energy Transfer
General Mills makes a big deal, Realty Income delivers, while Energy Transfer tries to battle back to even.
May 1, 2017
Seeking Balance: What’s Happening in the Crude Oil and Iron Ore Markets
Image Source: Sollven Melindo. Commodity prices are notoriously volatile as the global markets often struggle to maintain a sustainable balance of supply-demand. Let’s take a look at some recent developments and coming events that are impacting the prices of crude oil and iron ore.
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