Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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May 28, 2025

IBM Continues to Target $13.5 Billion in Free Cash Flow for 2025
Image: IBM’s shares have done quite well the past few years. During the first quarter, IBM returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in dividends while it invested $7.1 billion in acquisitions, including its purchase of HashiCorp. IBM ended the quarter with $17.6 billion in cash and marketable securities, while debt, including IBM Financing debt, totaled $63.3 billion. Looking to the full year 2025, IBM continues to expect constant currency revenue growth of at least 5%. Free cash flow is targeted at $13.5 billion for the full year. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $293 per share. Shares yield 2.6% at the time of this writing.

May 2, 2025

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 2
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Feb 1, 2025

IBM’s Generative AI Book of Business Doing Well
Image Source: TradingView. For the full year 2024, IBM generated net cash from operating activities, excluding IBM financing receivables, of $13.9 billion and hauled in $12.7 billion in free cash flow for the year, up $1.5 billion, and exceeding dividends paid of $6.1 billion. IBM ended the fourth quarter with $14.8 billion in cash and marketable securities, and debt, including IBM Financing debt of $12.1 billion, totaled $55 billion, down $1.6 billion from the end of 2023. For full year 2025, IBM expects full-year constant currency revenue growth of at least 5% and free cash flow of $13.5 billion for the full year, both measures exceeding the consensus forecast. Shares of IBM yield 2.6% at the time of this writing.

Oct 25, 2024

IBM Targeting $12+ Billion in 2024 Free Cash Flow
Image: Shares of IBM are flirting with record highs. IBM continues to expect to generate more than $12 billion in free cash flow for 2024 and for fourth-quarter constant currency revenue growth to be consistent with its most recently reported third quarter. IBM ended the third quarter with $13.7 billion in cash and marketable securities versus debt, including financing debt, of $56.6 billion. Though IBM has a large net debt position, we’re generally positive on its dividend given free cash flow coverage. Shares yield 3% at the time of this writing.

Jul 25, 2024

IBM’s Free Cash Flow Generation on the Up and Up
Image: IBM’s shares have staged a nice recovery since the beginning of 2023. Looking ahead to full-year 2024 expectations, IBM continues to expect constant currency revenue growth in the mid-single-digit range, while it now expects free cash flow to be in excess of $12 billion on the year. IBM ended its second quarter with $56.5 billion in total debt and $13.7 billion in cash and marketable securities. We like IBM’s improvement in free cash flow generation and exposure to AI, but we prefer other ideas in big cap tech, namely Alphabet and Microsoft. Shares yield 3.6%.

May 3, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 3
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Mar 8, 2024

Understanding Share Buybacks
Image shown: Buybacks aren't always positive for shareholders. An image showing when RadioShack bought back its own stock, just a few short years prior to filing for bankruptcy.Let’s explain how some share buybacks can be considered value-creating and some share buybacks can be considered value-destroying.

Feb 6, 2024

Palantir’s Fourth-Quarter Results Showcase Strong Trends in Artificial Intelligence
Image: Palantir’s revenue continues to march higher, and the company’s performance continues to showcase the growing strength in artificial intelligence. Source: Palantir. We liked Palantir’s quarterly results, but we wanted to bring to members’ attention the commentary surrounding artificial intelligence [AI]: "Our results reflect both the strength of our software and the surging demand that we are seeing across industries and sectors for artificial intelligence platforms, including large language models, that are capable of integrating with the tangle of existing technical infrastructure that organizations have been constructing for years...The demand for large language models from commercial institutions in the United States continues to be unrelenting. Every part of our organization is focused on the rollout of our Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which has gone from a prototype to a product in months. And our momentum with AIP is now significantly contributing to new revenue and new customers."

Jan 25, 2024

Earnings Roundup: TSLA, NEE, IBM, CMCSA, NOW
Image: The Model Y was the best-selling vehicle globally in 2023. Image Source: Tesla. Tesla missed fourth-quarter results, and while the firm continues to generate robust free cash flow with a solid net cash position, uncertainty surrounding the name looms. NextEra makes the cut for ESG investors, and its earnings outlook for the next few years remains robust, even if its dividend growth may slow. IBM is back in growth mode, and the firm is looking to capitalize on watsonx and generative AI. Comcast has a lot of things going for it, and the firm's robust free cash flow generation suggests that future dividend growth will be robust, despite its lofty net debt position. ServiceNow continues to deliver for investors, and it continues to grow at a robust pace.

Dec 11, 2023

Oracle’s “Business Is Good and Getting Better”
Image Source: Peter Kaminski. On December 11, Oracle reported mixed second-quarter results for its fiscal 2024 that showed total revenue advancing 5% on a year-over-year basis (4% in constant currency), slightly lower than expectations, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.34 that came in slightly ahead of what the market was looking for. The company’s non-GAAP operating margin of 43% in the quarter helped to drive non-GAAP net income 14% higher than the same period a year ago (11% in constant currency). We’re not letting the slight miss on the top line sway us from our constructive stance on shares. Our fair value estimate stands at $108 per share, about in-line with where shares are currently trading.