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Valuentum Commentary
May 19, 2025
3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 6, 2025
Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. Apr 28, 2025
Domino’s Pizza Misses First Quarter U.S. Same Store Sales Consensus Estimate
Image Source: Domino's. Excluding foreign currency impacts, Domino’s income from operations increased 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $179.1 million in the quarter with the firm spending $14.7 million in capital expenditures, resulting in free cash flow of $164.4 million in the period, up 59.1% from last year’s quarter. During the first quarter of 2025, Domino’s repurchased 115,280 shares for a total of $50 million. It still has $764.3 million in remaining authorized amount for share repurchases. We continue to like the long-term picture at Domino’s, and the company remains an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Feb 28, 2025
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 28
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Feb 25, 2025
Domino’s Remains a Key Idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
Image: Domino’s shares have advanced nicely since the beginning of 2023. For fiscal 2024, net cash provided by operating activities increased 5.8% on a year-over-year basis, while capital expenditures expanded 7.1%, resulting in free cash flow growth of 5.5%, to $512 million. The company experienced global net store growth of 775 for fiscal 2024, and we continue to like Domino’s future growth prospects. During the fourth quarter, the company repurchased a total of $112 million in stock, and as of December 29, had total remaining buyback authorization of $814.3 million. We like Domino’s long-term picture and include the firm as a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Jan 5, 2025
Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating
Image shown: An examination of the problem that might arise by focusing exclusively on companies that have economic moats, or sustainable and durable competitive advantages.Without an economic castle, an economic moat doesn’t matter. Let's examine Valuentum's Economic Castle™ rating. Oct 10, 2024
Domino’s Pizza Remains an Attractive Long-Term Story
Image: Domino’s core values. Looking to 2024, Domino’s expects approximately 6% annual global retail sales growth and approximately 8% annual income from operations growth as it seeks to expand global net store count by 800 to 850. For 2025, Domino’s expects a similar pace of expansion for annual global retail sales growth and annual income from operations growth. Its long-term guidance (2026-2028) calls for 7%+ annual global retail sales growth and 8%+ annual income from operations growth. The company ended the quarter with $4.98 billion in total debt and $189.1 million in cash and cash equivalents. Though Domino’s has a lofty net debt position, we like its long-term growth story, and the company remains a core idea in the portfolio of the Best Ideas Newsletter. Aug 28, 2024
The Difference Between Speculation and Investment
In this edited video transcript, Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment. Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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