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Valuentum Commentary
Oct 3, 2025
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 3
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Sep 25, 2025
Starbucks’ Turnaround Continues
Image Source: TradingView. During the fiscal third quarter, Starbucks opened 308 net new stores, ending the period with 41,097 stores. The company ended the quarter with 17,230 stores in the U.S. and 7,828 in China. Consolidated net revenues beat expectations in the quarter, increasing 4%, to $9.5 billion, or a 3% increase on a constant currency basis. Its non-GAAP operating margin, however, contracted 660 basis points, to 10.1%. Non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.50 declined 46% over the prior year and missed expectations. The coffee giant ended the quarter with $17.3 billion in short- and long-term debt and $4.7 billion in cash and investments. Starbucks’ global same store sales have now fallen for six consecutive quarters, but we expect improvement as the company heads into fiscal 2026. Shares yield 2.9% at the time of this writing. May 19, 2025
3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 6, 2025
Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Oct 25, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 25
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Oct 23, 2024
Starbucks Posts Lower Than Expected Performance, Turnaround “Will Take Time”
Image: Starbucks’ shares have been volatile the past couple years. Starbucks suspended its guidance for the full year 2025, given new CEO Brian Niccol and “the current state of the business.” That said, the company increased its quarterly cash dividend to $0.61 per share from $0.57 per share, which equates to a 2.5% forward estimated dividend yield, pointing to optimism regarding the long term. We’re cautious on Starbucks’ shares, as even the executive team noted that a turnaround “will take time.” Our fair value estimate stands at $85 per share, below where shares are trading at the time of this writing. Sep 19, 2024
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios. Aug 12, 2024
Starbucks' Mixed Results Speak to Cautious Consumer Environment
Image Source: Starbucks' Global Impact Report. Starbucks’ fiscal third quarter results weren’t great. Consolidated revenue fell 1%, comparable store sales dropped, while the firm’s non-GAAP earnings per share faced additional pressures. During the fiscal third quarter, Starbucks opened 526 net new stores, ending the period with 39,477 stores -- broken down into 52% company-operated and 48% licensed. Stores in the U.S. and China made up 61% of its global portfolio. Starbucks is getting squeezed by a cautious consumer and higher labor costs, and while we like the company, we’re just not interested in shares at this time. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?