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Valuentum Commentary
Oct 28, 2025
Your Role as a Choice Architect
Image: Impact Hub Global Network. Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge, co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. At Valuentum, we can never provide personalized buy/sell advice, but in providing publishing services, we've opted for the healthy option for members, and that sometimes means you won't find a large selection of dessert options. This isn't a shortcoming of our service (i.e. we know desserts are tempting), but rather a key positive attribute. As we've shown time and time again, you don't need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen. Here's to your long-term financial health! Jul 20, 2025
Johnson & Johnson Raises 2025 Guidance
Image Source: J&J. Looking to all of 2025, J&J raised its adjusted operational sales growth target to the range of 3.2%-3.7%, up from 2%-3% previously. Adjusted operational earnings per share for the year is expected in the range of $10.63-$10.73, up from $10.50-$10.70 previously, implying growth of 6.5%-7.5% versus the prior year. In the press release, management noted “significant new product pipeline progress including approval of IMAAVY for generalized myasthenia gravis, priority review for TAR-200, data for CARVYKTI overall survival and progression-free benefits in multiple myeloma, and continuation of the clinical trial for a general surgery robotic system, OTTAVA.” We like J&J, but don’t include shares in any newsletter portfolio. Jun 21, 2025
Johnson & Johnson Remains an Innovation Powerhouse
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson. J&J generated free cash flow of ~$3.4 billion in the first quarter compared to $2.85 billion in the year-ago period. Looking to full year 2025 guidance, J&J reiterated its adjusted operational sales growth target in the range of 2%-3%, but it raised its operational sales growth expectations to the range of 3.3%-4.3% from 2.5%-3.5% previously and its estimated reported sales growth guidance to the range of 2.6%-3.6% from 0.5%-1.5% previously. It lowered its adjusted operational earnings per share guidance for the year, but it maintained its adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance in the range of $10.50-$10.70, reflecting 6.2% growth at the midpoint. Shares yield 3.5% at the time of this writing. May 19, 2025
3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 6, 2025
Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. Apr 18, 2025
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of April 18
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Jan 24, 2025
Johnson & Johnson Issues Fourth Quarter Results
Image Source: J&J. For the full year 2024, J&J's free cash flow came in at ~$19.8 billion, up from $18.2 billion last year. The company ended the quarter with ~$12 billion in net debt. J&J made significant pipeline progress in the quarter including RYBREVANT + LAZCLUZE overall survival data, initiation of TAR-200 submission, and the approval of investigational device exemption for its general surgery robotic system, OTTAVA. J&J issued guidance or 2025 calling for operational sales growth of 2.5%-3.5%, below the consensus forecast, and adjusted operational earnings per share growth of $10.75-$10.95, reflecting 8.7% growth at the midpoint. We like J&J, but the company does not make the cut for inclusion in any newsletter portfolio at this time. Oct 16, 2024
Johnson & Johnson's Shares Look Fairly Valued
Image: Johnson & Johnson’s 2024 P&L guidance. Looking to all of 2024, Johnson & Johnson expects the midpoint of adjusted operational sales growth of 6%, up from its prior expectation of 5.8%. At the midpoint, diluted adjusted operational earning per share expansion is targeted at $9.91 per share down from $10.05 per share due to a negative impact from its recent acquisition of V-Wave. Our fair value estimate stands at $165 per share, about in-line with where shares are currently trading. Shares yield ~3%. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.
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Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?