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Valuentum Commentary
Oct 28, 2025
Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot? Oct 28, 2025
Your Role as a Choice Architect
Image: Impact Hub Global Network. Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge, co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. At Valuentum, we can never provide personalized buy/sell advice, but in providing publishing services, we've opted for the healthy option for members, and that sometimes means you won't find a large selection of dessert options. This isn't a shortcoming of our service (i.e. we know desserts are tempting), but rather a key positive attribute. As we've shown time and time again, you don't need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen. Here's to your long-term financial health! Jul 24, 2025
Alphabet Puts Up Excellent Second Quarter Results
Image Source: TradingView. In Alphabet’s second quarter, total operating income increased 14%, as its operating margin came in at 32.4% benefiting from strength in the top line and “continued efficiencies in the expense base." Net income increased to $28.2 billion, up from $23.6 billion in the same quarter of 2024, while diluted earnings per share increased to $2.31 from $1.89 in the year-ago period. Alphabet ended the quarter with $95.1 billion in total cash and marketable securities and long-term debt of $23.6 billion. Through the first six months of the year, free cash flow was $24.3 billion. We like Alphabet as one of the top ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. May 19, 2025
3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 6, 2025
Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. Apr 28, 2025
Alphabet Remains a Top Consideration for Long Term Capital Appreciation
Image Source: TradingView. Alphabet raised its dividend 5%, and spent $2.4 billion on dividends during the three months ended March 31. The Board of Directors also authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $70 billion of its Class A and Class C shares. As of March 31, total cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $95.3 billion, while long-term debt totaled $10.9 billion at the end of the quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $36.2 billion in the quarter, while the firm spent $17.2 billion in capital expenditures, resulting in free cash flow of ~$19 billion. We continue to like Alphabet as a top consideration in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Apr 25, 2025
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of April 25
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Feb 5, 2025
Alphabet’s Cash Flow Soars in Fourth Quarter
Image Source: TradingView. Google Search and other revenue advanced 12.5% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, while YouTube ads increased 13.8%. Total Google advertising revenue increased 10.6% in the quarter year-over-year. Total Google Services revenue edged 10.2% higher, while Google Cloud revenue increased 30% from the same period last year. Alphabet ended the quarter with $95.7 billion in total cash and marketable securities and long-term debt of $10.9 billion, good for a robust net cash position. Net cash provided by operating activities soared to $39.1 billion in the quarter versus $18.9 billion in the year-ago period. Free cash flow in the quarter was $24.8 billion, up from $7.9 billion in last year’s quarter. We continue to like Alphabet as a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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Image: Alphabet’s revenues eclipsed $100 billion in the quarter. In the quarter, Alphabet generated $48.41 billion in cash from operations and spent $23.95 billion in property and equipment, resulting in free cash flow of $24.46 billion. Year-to-date, cash from operations was $112.3 billion, while the company spent $63.6 billion in property and equipment, resulting in free cash flow of $48.7 billion. Total cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities was $98.5 billion at the end of the quarter, versus $21.6 billion in long-term debt. The company pays a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share. Looking to all of 2025, Alphabet expects capital expenditures in the range of $91-$93 billion. Even in the face of higher capital spending, Alphabet remains a net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouse. We continue to like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.