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Latest Valuentum Commentary
Jan 25, 2024
Earnings Roundup: TSLA, NEE, IBM, CMCSA, NOW
Image: The Model Y was the best-selling vehicle globally in 2023. Image Source: Tesla. Tesla missed fourth-quarter results, and while the firm continues to generate robust free cash flow with a solid net cash position, uncertainty surrounding the name looms. NextEra makes the cut for ESG investors, and its earnings outlook for the next few years remains robust, even if its dividend growth may slow. IBM is back in growth mode, and the firm is looking to capitalize on watsonx and generative AI. Comcast has a lot of things going for it, and the firm's robust free cash flow generation suggests that future dividend growth will be robust, despite its lofty net debt position. ServiceNow continues to deliver for investors, and it continues to grow at a robust pace.
Dec 29, 2023
Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.
Dec 23, 2023
12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.
Nov 29, 2023
Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report refreshes on the website.
Nov 2, 2023
Ferrari's Results Speak to Resilience in Ultra-Luxury Markets
Image: Ferrari raised its guidance for 2023. Ferrari raised its year-end guidance thanks in part to a strong product mix and improved revenue from racing activities, and the firm noted that its “order book remains at highest levels reflecting strong demand across all geographies, covering the entire 2025.” We couldn’t be happier with the performance at Ferrari, and the momentum speaks to continued strength across the ultra-luxury landscape. We like Ferrari as one of our favorite automakers, a name that we prefer much more than any of the Big 3 in Detroit.
Oct 23, 2023
2 Stocks to Watch: Tesla and Chevron
Image: Tesla. Tesla’s third-quarter report could have been a lot better, and Elon Musk’s comments that they “have dug (their) own grave with the Cybertruck” weren’t reassuring. Nonetheless, the company continues to generate free cash flow, and its balance sheet remains pristine with a very nice net cash position. We won’t be adding shares of Tesla to any newsletter portfolio, but given the price drop in its equity during the past week, we think most of the bad news is already embedded in the stock. As for Chevron, the company was once a darling stock in the newsletter portfolios, but we’ve moved beyond this big winner in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio after the huge “gains” the past 12-18 months. Shares still yield an attractive 3.6%, however, and we'll have more to say about its tie-up with Hess as more details come to light.
Oct 22, 2023
There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!
Sep 20, 2023
ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.
Sep 20, 2023
Fed Rate Decision, UAW Strike Continues, Microsoft Ups Payout
Image Source: Mike Mozart. If you’re thinking like us about the ongoing Fed rate-hiking cycle, you’re probably thinking that perhaps we’ll see another rate hike or two down the road, even if the Fed pauses at today’s September 20 meeting. However, whether the Fed pauses from here on out or executes a couple more hikes, it really shouldn’t matter much to long-term investors. From where we stand, the conversation about interest rates should now be shifting away from worries about elevated inflation to the future positive prospects that correspond to the work that the Fed has already done. With the market-cap weighted S&P 500 just a stone’s throw away from all-time highs, despite aggressive contractionary monetary policy, we believe the market may start to view the existing levels of “high” near-term interest rates as dry powder for the Fed to stimulate the economy in the future, if or when it’s needed. The Fed has now built up a very nice insurance policy with little damage done to the U.S. stock market, and we think equities, particularly the stylistic area of large cap growth, may continue to reward investors as such a positive view is eventually factored in. New highs may once again be in the cards, and we remain bullish on the equity markets today, despite the ominous volatility experienced the past 20+ months.
Sep 18, 2023
The Role of Luck in Investing and How To Think About It
Image: EpicTop10.com. For every Amazon that made it, there are hundreds, maybe thousands, from the dot-com era that didn't. Very few remember Pets.com or etoys.com, both of which went belly up during the dot-com meltdown. For every Tesla, there is a DeLorean Motor Co. We might have completely forgotten about DeLorean were it not for the blockbuster movie, Back To The Future, that immortalized its futuristic sports car. For every streaming enterprise like Netflix, there is a Napster that failed. Most of us probably don't even remember the original Napster, which encountered legal troubles before closing shop shortly after the dot-com bust. For every Alphabet, there's an AltaVista or Netscape. For every Apple, there is a Palm or Blackberry. Who remembers how popular the Palm Pilot and Blackberry were? How about the Motorola Razr? For every Facebook and Instagram, there is a Myspace or Friendster. As investors, we underestimate the role of luck in a company's long-term success. In February 2000, a month before the dot-com market crash, a fledgling Amazon raised $672 million in convertible notes to European investors. If the company hadn't done so, there'd likely be no Amazon today, and one of the wealthiest men in the world, Jeff Bezos, might have just been a mere footnote in stock market history. Amazon would have been insolvent in 2001-2002 just like many of its other dot-com peers.
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.