Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 23, 2014

Why Analytical Experience Matters
Dividend growth investors -- or any investor for that matter -- shouldn’t just plug and chug numbers. An understanding of the firm and its industry is vital to making sure the company can sustainably pay dividends through the course of the economic cycle.

Jun 22, 2014

Valuentum Economic Castle™ Rating Update
Members should expect the initial Economic Castle™ ratings.

Apr 28, 2014

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending April 25
Let's take a look at dividend increases for the week ending April 25.

Mar 23, 2014

Only One Bank Fails Fed's Stress Test
All major lenders passed the Fed's stress test except one.

Jan 15, 2014

Surveying Fourth Quarter Performance at the Money Center Banks
Let’s examine a number of reasons why we don’t prefer banking entities and take a look at recent performance from industry constituents. A challenging rate environment and declining mortgage originations offer key headwinds.

Oct 8, 2013

Banks Pass Self-Administered Stress Tests
Not surprisingly, the “too big to fail” banks passed internal stress tests.

Sep 12, 2013

The Mortgage Refinancing Boom Could Be Ending
The bull market in mortgage refinancing activity appears to be over, but that doesn’t mean it will materially damage the economy.

Sep 4, 2013

Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Firms: 4 Very Good Reasons
It’s sometimes easy to lose sight of the fragility of a banking firm’s business model. Let’s examine the reasons why we don’t like banking firms’ dividends. Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible. Reason #2: Our Competitors Have Tried to Invest in Bank Dividends and Have Failed Miserably. Reason #3: Cash Flow Is Not Meaningful at Banks. Reason #4: There Are Plenty of Other Options.

Long Live Apple and Large Cap Growth!
Image: Since the release of the book Value Trap in December 2018, an ETF that tracks large cap growth (SCHG) has outperformed not only the S&P 500 (SPY), but also the areas of dividend growth (SDY) and small cap value (IWN) by sizable margins. In a world where monetary policy is tightening and regional banks are failing, we maintain our long-held view that big cap tech and large cap growth are the places to be. Since the release of the book Value Trap in December 2018, an ETF that tracks the area of large cap growth (SCHG) has not only outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY), but also the areas of dividend growth (SDY) and small cap value (IWN) by sizable margins. We love the net cash rich balance sheets and strong expected future free cash flow generators within the area of large cap growth, and Apple remains one of our very favorites that fits the mold. Apple is included in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Quick Take: Fed Raises 25 Basis Points; This Banking Crisis Is Far from Over
Image: FOMC Chairman Powell answers a reporter's question at the March 20, 2019 press conference. On March 22, 2023, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points, to the range of 4.75%-5%, a move that we think reflects a government agency that is now more or less a deer caught in headlights--given the nascent regional banking crisis in the United States. The bottom line is that the U.S. banking system does not have enough cash on hand to redeem all deposits (it never has), and with respect to U.S. banks, deposit insurance is only up to $250,000 per depositor, per FDIC-insured bank, per ownership category. The U.S. public has grown concerned, and that may spell continued panic (and deposit flight). The bank business model is inherently flawed, in our view, necessitating outsized risk and enormous amounts of leverage. From where we stand, the U.S. banking system will likely continue to be tested until it is resolved that any deposits held at any financial institution in the U.S. are completely safe by explicit government guarantee. Without this explicit guarantee, it may mean continued deposit flight from the regional banks to the large money center banks -- the Too-Big-to-Fail ("TBTF") banks -- or it could mean potentially higher deposit insurance levels that go far beyond the current $250,000 threshold, which itself was raised from $100,000 during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 (and made permanent in 2010). One might hope that the markets can perhaps avert another all-out banking crisis if deposit insurance thresholds are raised once again, but this explicit move remains to be seen.