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Latest Valuentum Commentary
Feb 25, 2024
We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.
Feb 9, 2024
Earnings Roundup: PEP, DIS, ARM, PM
Image Source: Arm Holdings. Pepsi issued an outlook for 2024 that came in lower than what the Street was expecting, but we like the diversification of having a strong brand entity such as Pepsi in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Disney is working hard to get back on track, and cost-cutting efforts have significantly helped its free cash flow generation. The firm is buying back stock, too, and recently upped its semi-annual dividend payout by 50%. Arm Holdings plc surprised the market in a big way, sending shares almost 50% higher following the report. The company's lucrative royalty business model and attractive exposure to artificial intelligence has investors extremely excited. Philip Morris is targeting strong organic revenue growth in 2024 thanks in part to Zyn growth, and we like the strong foundation that its free cash flow provides in supporting its dividend.
Feb 6, 2024
Palantir’s Fourth-Quarter Results Showcase Strong Trends in Artificial Intelligence
Image: Palantir’s revenue continues to march higher, and the company’s performance continues to showcase the growing strength in artificial intelligence. Source: Palantir. We liked Palantir’s quarterly results, but we wanted to bring to members’ attention the commentary surrounding artificial intelligence [AI]: "Our results reflect both the strength of our software and the surging demand that we are seeing across industries and sectors for artificial intelligence platforms, including large language models, that are capable of integrating with the tangle of existing technical infrastructure that organizations have been constructing for years...The demand for large language models from commercial institutions in the United States continues to be unrelenting. Every part of our organization is focused on the rollout of our Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which has gone from a prototype to a product in months. And our momentum with AIP is now significantly contributing to new revenue and new customers."
Jan 31, 2024
Alphabet, Microsoft Remain Cash-Rich, Secular Growth Powerhouses
Image Source: Shawn Carpenter. All eyes were on Alphabet and Microsoft after the bell January 30. We include both Alphabet and Microsoft in the newsletter portfolios due to their tremendous cash-based sources of intrinsic value: net cash on the balance sheet and free cash flow generation. It would take a monumental shift in the trajectory of these fantastic businesses for us to ever consider removing them from the newsletter portfolios, and we’re reiterating our favorable long-term view on both following their respective calendar fourth-quarter reports.
Jan 15, 2024
Your Role as a Choice Architect
Image: Impact Hub Global Network. Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge, co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. At Valuentum, we can never provide personalized buy/sell advice, but in providing publishing services, we've opted for the healthy option for members, and that sometimes means you won't find a large selection of dessert options. This isn't a shortcoming of our service (i.e. we know desserts are tempting), but rather a key positive attribute. As we've shown time and time again, you don't need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen. Here's to your long-term financial health!
Jan 10, 2024
Best Ideas Visa, Alphabet Hit 52-Week Highs
Image: The top weightings in Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio just hit 52-week highs. The first week of trading in 2024 gave investors some pause, as it was filled with profit taking from a strong 2023, but we think this bull market continues to have legs. We’ve outlined 12 reasons as to why we think investors should stay aggressive during 2024, and while key inflation data looms, we continue to like how the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is positioned heading into what could be another strong year in 2024. Visa and Alphabet remain two of our favorite ideas on the market today, and we point to the high end of their respective fair value estimate ranges as reasonable targets for optimistic, risk-seeking investors.
Jan 8, 2024
Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?
Dec 29, 2023
Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.
Dec 23, 2023
12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.
Dec 19, 2023
In the News: Google, McDonald’s, Costco, Apple
Image: McDonald’s has released a new beverage concept, and it looks to be a hit. Image Source: CosMcs. The market continues to ebb and flow with the latest Federal Reserve commentary, but we continue to be fans of the strong foundation that is the U.S. employment market and the great promise of artificial intelligence [AI] as key themes for 2024. We're huge fans of the net-cash-rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses found in big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth. We expect these two areas to continue to lead the markets higher, if not in 2024, through the better part of this decade. Let's take a look at some of the latest news at Alphabet, McDonald's, Costco, and Apple.
Latest Press Releases
The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.