Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 5, 2019

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Holding Magellan Midstream Keeps Growing
Image Shown: Magellan Midstream is focusing heavily on growing its fee-based operations, with an eye towards expanding its refined products pipeline segment. Image Source: Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. – August 2019 IR Presentation. If you may wish to add the High Yield Dividend Newsletter to your membership, please click here.We continue to like Magellan Midstream as a holding in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. The company’s investment grade credit ratings (BBB+/Baa1 as of August 2019) and preference to fund its growth trajectory with debt instead of equity (equity issuances have been very muted since 2010) allows for steady sustainable increases in the company’s per unit distribution. Magellan Midstream retains access to capital markets at attractive rates and will likely take advantage of the subdued interest rate environment by refinancing portions of its existing debt load at lower rates when able. Magellan Midstream’s quarterly distribution per unit has grown by almost three-fold since the start of 2010, and there’s room for additional payout increases over the coming years.

Sep 16, 2019

Saudi Arabia Attacked, Oil Prices Shoot Higher
Disaster struck this weekend when several drones took out the Abqaiq oil processing facility and the massive onshore Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia on Saturday, with WTI and Brent both surging on the news once trading resumed at the start of the week. We will be monitoring this situation very closely going forward. The pace at which Saudi Arabia can bring capacity back online will have an outsize impact on global oil markets going forward, as the world no longer has any spare capacity to turn to during times like these (when supply is severely curtailed). Geopolitical tensions are clearly growing and that could spill over into a war directly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but for now there’s no signs of troops mobilizing for such an endeavor.

Aug 28, 2019

BP Says Goodbye to Alaska After 60 Years
Image Source: BP IR Presentation. We are supportive of BP’s decision to divest its Alaskan operations as the company has been successfully bringing upstream projects online on-time and on-budget all over the globe over the past few years, driving its net oil & gas production levels higher (upstream output was up 4% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2019). BP’s operational execution of late has been nothing less than stellar and the energy giant is included in our simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. Shares of BP yield 6.7% as of this writing.

Aug 23, 2019

Kinder Morgan Reaches a Deal to Divest Stake in Canadian Spin-Off
Image Shown: A look at Kinder Morgan's massive oil & gas infrastructure operations that crisscross North America. The natural gas midstream giant is selling its Canadian segment by divesting its 70% equity stake in Kinder Morgan Canada and the US portion of the Cochin pipeline to Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA). Image Source: Kinder Morgan Inc – IR Presentation. We like Kinder Morgan because it's one of the few midstream firms actually targeting free cash flow generation instead of focusing on distributable cash flow, which we see as a deeply flawed metric (not taking growth-related capital expenditures into account completely misses the picture in our view). The company’s natural gas assets in the US are irreplaceable and its pipelines transport ~40% of US natural gas according to Kinder Morgan.

Aug 9, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending August 9
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Aug 7, 2019

Tallgrass Energy’s Growth Runway Shorter Than Expected
Image Source: Tallgrass Energy LP -- IR Presentation. We parted with Tallgrass as we see greater opportunities in other midstream firms and different parts of the high-yield universe, such as Enterprise Products Partners, which have stronger growth runways and assets that better cater to the ever-evolving needs of North America’s oil & gas industry. Recent weakness in TGE indicates the market is losing faith in Tallgrass’ growth trajectory and its future free cash flows.

Jul 18, 2019

Kinder Morgan Modestly Disappoints But Its Problems Are Transitory
Image Shown: Kinder Morgan Inc expects a lot of organic growth opportunities will be generated via surging domestic demand for natural gas and rising natural gas export capacity in the US. Image Source: Kinder Morgan Inc – IR Presentation. We remain optimistic on Kinder Morgan’s dividend growth opportunities, and our fair value estimate still stands at $23 per share.

Feb 17, 2019

S&P Global: "Enterprise's shift on cash flow reflects 'metamorphosis' of US pipeline firms"
S&P Global: "While several major U.S. energy pipeline companies spent 2018 shedding cash-leaking habits and forging a more conventional financial structure as stocks languished, adopting reporting practices that are more accessible to the investing public could be a gradual process for the industry, if it takes flight at all."

Feb 11, 2019

MLPs Starting to Adopt Free Cash Flow?
Image shown: Since mid-June 2015, the price of an ETF tracking the midstream MLP energy space (AMLP) has fallen more than 40% while the S&P 500 (SPY) has rallied more than 30%. No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios.

Jan 20, 2019

Kinder Morgan Reiterates Dividend Growth Intention
Image shown: Kinder Morgan’s pipeline network and estimated breakdown of 2018 EBDA. Source: Kinder Morgan investor presentation.  Pipeline operator Kinder Morgan has benefited from a significant increase in natural gas supply and demand of late, and it expects more of the same in 2019. Management continues to execute on its capital allocation priorities, and it reiterated previously-announced guidance for dividend growth in the years ahead.