Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 15, 2015

As the World Turns
We’re keeping our eyes on a number of things. First, we’re monitoring property prices in Shanghai and in other larger Chinese cities to assess the potential calamity that falling housing prices and deflation would have on the country’s banking sector and the likelihood of contagion via the British banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered, and the US ones, namely Citigroup and JP Morgan. Second, we’re watching the price of crude oil closely, as its fall will have huge implications on the earnings trajectory of companies that benefit (airlines, restaurants) as well as the ones that suffer (upstream and energy services). The net effect of falling crude oil prices has thus far been negative for S&P 500 earnings, but this may change as the energy sector becomes an ever-smaller part of index construction. Third, who can forget about the Fed, the expected duration of any tightening monetary cycle, and the resulting implications on dividend-paying stocks as Treasury yields rise?

Sep 8, 2015

5 US-Centric Undervalued Stocks with Fantastic Economics
With most non-US markets crumbling, the resilience of a still-expanding US economy coupled with a strong greenback may make US stocks relative outperformers. Screen: Economic castles with a high percentage of revenue generated in the US that are trading at a large discount to our estimate of their intrinsic value.

Sep 3, 2015

Bond Issuance Has Ground to a Halt; Expect Negative 2016 GDP Impact
We won’t feel the true economic impact of China’s collapse until 2016, but that doesn’t mean stocks won’t start discounting economic headwinds right now. Stocks have and always will be forward-looking discounting vehicles.

Sep 1, 2015

Batten Down the Hatches – Another US Market Crash Probable
The aftermath of China’s equity market collapse and the Dow’s crash last week will have material spillover effects.

Aug 28, 2015

3 Observations
The wild week that ended August 28, 2015.

Aug 27, 2015

Understanding the Market Melt-Up Wednesday
The Fed is in a pickle.

Aug 25, 2015

The Nelson Tweet
Please be sure to follow President Brian Nelson on Twitter during these tumultuous times.

Aug 25, 2015

China Eases to Support Country’s Stock Bubble; US Markets Cheer Behavior?
Nobody said the market was rational in the short term.

Aug 24, 2015

The Debt Bubble Is Deflating; Will It Pop?
"What remains to be seen, from our perspective, is whether the collapse in the mining and energy sectors and the crisis in emerging-market currencies will eventually lead to yet another credit crisis, similar to the one that shocked the world in 2008-2009 and brought some well-known names to their knees across the financial sector." -- inside this piece

Aug 22, 2015

The Dow Crashes 531 Points
The broader markets took a shellacking Friday, but the worst still lies ahead. It will get worse before it gets better, in our view.