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    Valuentum Commentary
   
Aug 27, 2025
     
        
      Nvidia Shines in Second Quarter of Fiscal 2026 
  Image Source: Nvidia. Looking to the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Nvidia expects revenue to be $54.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, an outlook that does not assume any H20 shipments to China. Consensus was at $52.76 billion. In the fiscal third quarter, GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 73.3% and 73.5%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. The firm expects to end the year with non-GAAP gross margins in the mid-70% range. Nvidia continues to power the market higher, and while results weren’t as bullish as some were expecting, they were strong, nonetheless. May 29, 2025
     
        
      Nvidia Reports Better Than Expected First Quarter Results 
  Image: Nvidia’s shares are flirting with all-time highs. Nvidia ended the quarter with $53.7 billion in cash and marketable securities versus long-term debt of $8.5 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities was $27.4 billion in the first quarter, up from $15.3 billion in the year-ago period. Free cash flow was $26.2 billion in the quarter, up from $15 billion in the year-ago period. Nvidia is a net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouse, and we continue to like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate stands at $163 per share. May 19, 2025
     
        
      3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now 
  All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 6, 2025
     
        
      Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far 
  Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. Apr 4, 2025
     
        
      Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing 
  The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Feb 26, 2025
     
        
      Nvidia Delivers in Fiscal Fourth Quarter 
  Image Source: Nvidia. Looking to its first quarter of fiscal 2026, Nvidia's revenue is expected to be $43 billion, plus or minus 2% (consensus was $42.05 billion), with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins expected to be 70.6% and 71%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. Nvidia ended its fiscal year with $43.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while long-term debt was $8.5 billion. Free cash flow was $15.6 billion in the quarter and $60.9 billion for the fiscal year. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $180 per share. Dec 29, 2024
     
        
      How Does 37% Sound? 
  Image: The Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG) is up more than 37% so far in 2024. So what’s the playbook for 2025? You can probably guess that I think large cap growth and big cap tech will continue to lead the markets to new heights. 2024 was a boring year, if a 37% return can be considered boring for large cap growth. Frankly, with the market focusing on macro data and the Fed during 2024, there wasn’t much material to write about. We all already know the story: Inflation is under control, the job market remains healthy, the Fed is cutting, and artificial intelligence will be the name of the game this decade. Dec 27, 2024
     
        
      Alert: Changes to the Newsletter Portfolios 
  Image Source: Mike Cohen cc by 2.0. We are making some changes to the newsletter portfolios. We continue to believe that large cap growth and big cap tech is the place to be, and we’ll be further tilting the portfolios in that direction. Nov 20, 2024
     
        
      Nvidia’s Gross Margins Facing Pressure But Still Very Healthy 
  Image: Nvidia’s shares have surged higher in recent years. Looking to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Nvidia’s revenue is expected to be $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%. Non-GAAP gross margins are expected to fall sequentially to 73.5%, while non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be $3.4 billion in the fourth quarter. Nvidia’s third quarter report was fine, but its fourth-quarter revenue guidance was a bit light relative to some buyside estimates, and its non-GAAP gross margin guidance for the fourth quarter revealed modest sequential pressure. The high end of our fair value estimate stands at $180 per share. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
    Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on
    this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any
    security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s
    accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or
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    no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a
    registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees,
    and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site. 
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Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?