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Valuentum Commentary
Jun 10, 2025
Broadcom Is a Cash Cow
Image: Broadcom’s shares have done quite well the past few years. Broadcom’s cash from operations was $6.6 billion and capital spending was $144 million in the fiscal second quarter, resulting in free cash flow of $6.4 billion, or 43% of revenue. Looking to the third quarter of fiscal 2025 for the period ending August 3, Broadcom expects revenue of approximately $15.8 billion, above the consensus forecast of $15.77 billion at the time of the report, and third quarter adjusted EBITDA of at least 66% of projected revenue. Though we don’t include Broadcom in any newsletter portfolio, the company’s results support an outlook for continued strong AI demand growth. Shares yield 1% at the time of this writing. May 19, 2025
3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 6, 2025
Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Mar 9, 2025
Broadcom Remains a Free Cash Flow Cow
Image: Broadcom’s shares have done quite well since the beginning of 2023. Broadcom’s cash from operations was $6.1 billion for the first quarter, less capital expenditures of $100 million, resulting in free cash flow of $6 billion, or 40% of revenue. Looking to the second quarter of fiscal 2025, management expects revenue of approximately $14.9 billion, above the $14.59 billion consensus estimate, and second quarter adjusted EBITDA to be 66% of projected revenue. Broadcom ended the quarter with $9.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents and short-and long-term debt of $66.6 billion. Though its balance sheet is saddled with an outsized debt load, it remains a free cash flow cow. Dec 13, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 13
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Oct 17, 2024
Taiwan Semiconductor Benefiting from Strong Smartphone and AI Demand
Image: Taiwan Semiconductor released better than expected results. Taiwan Semiconductor ended the quarter with NT$2,167.6 billion in cash and marketable securities against long-term interest-bearing debt of NT$936.16, showcasing a nice net cash position. Free cash flow in the quarter advanced to NT$184.91 billion from NT$68.03 in the year-ago period. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2024, revenue is targeted in the range of US$26.1 billion and US$26.9 billion (consensus was at US$25.02 billion), while gross profit margin and operating profit margin, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 32 NT dollars, are expected to be 57%-59% and 46.5-48.5%, respectively. We liked Taiwan Semiconductor’s results and outlook, and the company remains a key idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio. Sep 19, 2024
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios. Sep 8, 2024
Broadcom Misses with Guidance for Its Fiscal Fourth Quarter
Image: Broadcom’s shares fell after the company issued fiscal fourth quarter guidance that came up short with respect to the consensus estimate. Looking to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, Broadcom expects revenue of approximately $14 billion, and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of approximately 64% of projected revenue, or $8.96 billion. Though the firm’s revenue guidance for the fourth quarter wasn’t poor, it did come in lower than the $14.13 billion that the Street was expecting, and shares were punished as a result. We’re not reading much into one quarterly report, however, and we maintain that trends in artificial intelligence are prolific. Sep 6, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 6
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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