Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 21, 2021

ICYMI: Valuentum's Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks' Memo: "Something of Value"
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks' latest memo, "Something of Value," January 11, 2021.

Nov 16, 2020

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process
With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company's revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There's a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

May 19, 2020

Video: A Call for More Policy Action in a Post COVID-19 World
Image: There may no longer be any basis for believing in efficient markets. Investors were bidding up the price of the wrong company because of confusion over its ticker symbol. This is just one example of how markets are inefficient. Bailouts coupled with Fed and Treasury stimulus from COVID-19 will have profound implications on investment behavior, with expectations for indexing and quantitative strategies to continue to proliferate. New rules may be required to ensure that investors' interests are truly being put first. President of Valuentum Brian Nelson presents a call to action.

Apr 17, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 17
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jan 23, 2020

Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.

Apr 19, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 19
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Nov 19, 2018

Dropping Coverage of the Securities Research Industry
Image Source: Andreas Poike. Valuentum is dropping coverage of the securities research industry to allocate resources elsewhere.

Sep 5, 2018

There Is Milk At The Store
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." -- Winston Churchill

Aug 6, 2018

Valuentum’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Distribution
The weighted average cost of capital is one of the most subjective measures in corporate finance, but it is also one of the most important ones.