Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 3, 2021

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run
“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached during 2021. Though traditional valuation multiples may seem stretched by most measures, many market bellwethers have huge net cash positions and tremendous free cash flow growth potential. We expect the equity markets to continue to be led by large cap growth.” – Brian Nelson, CFA

Oct 10, 2021

PepsiCo Flexes Its Pricing Power
Image Shown: PepsiCo Inc is adeptly navigating various inflationary, labor, and logistical hurdles. Investors have started to warm back up to the name and its impressive pricing power over the past several months. On October 5, beverage and snack giant PepsiCo reported third-quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended September 4, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. PepsiCo also raised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2021 in conjunction with the report.

Jun 1, 2021

ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.

May 4, 2021

Video: Apple’s Cash Based Sources of Intrinsic Value and Dividend Health
Image Shown: Inside an Apple store. Source: Valuentum. Video shown: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson walks through Apple's financial statements to explain the cash-based sources of intrinsic value and how net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flow are key sources of dividend health. This 10-minute video clip is part of a 3+ hour presentation on financial statement analysis provided in April 2021.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Nov 12, 2020

Altria May Never Make A Comeback
Image Source: Altria. Altria’s core business is under attack from almost every front, and the trend toward investing in ESG-friendly (Environment, Social and Corporate Governance) names has the company’s investor basing shrinking by the day. Aside from cigarettes, Altria has exposure to cigars, smokeless tobacco (UST), wine (Ste. Michelle), oral nicotine pouches, AB-InBev, JUUL, cannabinoid company Cronos, among other interests, but it’s clear the company’s back is against the wall as it struggles to diversify. A huge misstep with JUUL that cost it billions, very tight dividend coverage with earnings and free cash flow, a huge net debt position that will be tough to pay down given dividend obligations, and a lofty dividend yield that speaks more to risk than anything else should give investors pause. We don’t expect trouble at Altria anytime soon, but we think the red flag will go up if it ever starts to look to unload its stake in AB-InBev. If that happens, investors should run for the hills, in our view. Altria may never make a comeback, and we’ve been out of the name since it announced the deal with JUUL back in December 2018. Our fair value estimate stands at $42 per share.

Sep 3, 2020

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.

Sep 1, 2020

Valuentum Website Overview
Overview of the key features of www.valuentum.com (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information.

Aug 23, 2020

Latest Stock Report Updates
Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.

Jul 28, 2020

Earnings Brief: SAM, MAT, TOT, HON, AXP
Image Source: Boston Beer. CEO Dave Burwick noted in Boston Beer’s second-quarter press release: “The growth of the Truly brand, led by Truly Hard Lemonade, has accelerated and continues to grow beyond our expectations. Since early January, Truly has grown its velocity and its market share sequentially while other national, regional and local hard seltzer brands have entered the category. Truly is the only hard seltzer, not introduced earlier this year, to grow its share during 2020.” We’re impressed, but still taking a cautious view on SAM’s shares.