Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!

Nov 28, 2022

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership
In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance--despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening!

Nov 13, 2022

ASML Launches Big Buyback; Lithography Systems Well Positioned for Demand Growth
Image: ASML has been one of the most successful semiconductor companies thanks in part to the firm’s advanced lithography systems that continue to meet customer demands for size and cost efficiencies. Image Source: ASML. We think ASML Holding is in a sweet spot in the semiconductor space as its lithography systems position the industry well along the path of Moore’s Law. Strong past investments have given it a leadership position, and we expect ASML to capture a significant amount of its addressable market from smartphones to personal computing and beyond, all the while it pays a dividend and buys back stock along the way. A continued focus on research & development and capital spending, while maintaining a strong and flexible balance sheet should be expected. The firm’s recent Investor Day was a positive catalyst for shares and eased the worst of the concerns regarding the intermediate-term impact of Sino-American tensions on the semiconductor space. We continue to like shares of ASML Holding.

Nov 10, 2022

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print
Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also not ruling out a Santa Claus rally through the end of the year. Merry Dow Jones, as they say!

Nov 3, 2022

ALERT: Replacing Qualcomm with McDonald’s in Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio
Image: The semiconductor space is experiencing a number of headwinds, and while we still like Qualcomm’s long-term prospects, we’re replacing it with McDonald’s in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Qualcomm. We’re huge fans of Qualcomm’s business model over the long haul, but risks continue to add up. First, the adjustment in the pace of Qualcomm’s expectations for handset volumes for calendar 2022 is rather concerning, given the delta from its commentary in July and over a period of what is only a couple months remaining this year. In light of U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, new export restrictions on chip technology to China (announced October 7) that are further complicating industry matters, and Qualcomm customers retrenching by drawing down on their inventory, we’re going to remove the small “position” in Qualcomm in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. McDonald’s will be taking its place in the portfolio. This change will be reflected in the next edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter.

Oct 24, 2022

Chip Stocks -- Geopolitical Uncertainty Heightens in China; ASML, QCOM Still Strong Long-Term Considerations, But Expect Near-Term Fundamental Weakness
Image Source: The U.S. Department of Commerce. The global economic environment continues to reel from heightened inflation, which is pressuring consumer discretionary spending, but geopolitical uncertainty remains at a fever pitch. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unsettled investors, but the back-and-forth between the U.S. and China has chipmakers in the crosshairs. On October 7, 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report aimed to restrict China’s ability to attain advanced computer chip technology. We expect a downward revision to our fair value estimates across the chip space, but many of their refreshed fair value estimates will remain within their existing fair value estimate ranges. We expect a downward revision to our fair value estimates across the chip space, but many of their refreshed fair value estimates will remain within their existing fair value estimate ranges. Qualcomm will report fourth-quarter results November 2, 2022, and we’ll have more to say after the report. We recently dove into ASML’s quarterly report for the period ending October 3, which wasn’t too bad. Of note, ASML indicated that the export restrictions won’t be as punitive for them as many believe given its headquarters in the Netherlands. Though our newsletter portfolio "exposure" to the chip space is small, we'll be watching fundamental performance across the group closely.

Sep 5, 2022

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way
It’s easy to lose sight of the tremendous value that a Valuentum subscription provides during down markets, but we’ve been here for you every step of the way. 2019, 2020, and 2021 were fantastic years, and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio have delivered in 2022. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio is holding up nicely, and ideas within the Exclusive publication continue to boast impressive success rates. Members continue to receive options ideas to bet directionally on the stock market, and the book Value Trap has been true to its efforts, showcasing the ongoing benefits of forward-looking analysis. [Given the change in opinion following the publishing of the August edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter, please be sure to check www.Valuentum.com for Valuentum’s latest.]

Sep 1, 2022

Nelson: Executing the Valuentum Strategy
Video: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why he's turned bearish on the equity markets after a great bull run. In this 8-minute video, learn about the fantastic returns of the stock market the past three years, and how the Valuentum way has cushioned the market decline in 2022. Watch now to learn about the textbook execution of the Valuentum strategy and more!

Aug 27, 2022

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to "Raise" Incremental Cash
Video: Valuentum's Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by "tapped out" consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market "flush," and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to "raise" incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes.

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.