Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 14, 2020

Starbucks’ Long-Term Outlook Is Improving
Image Shown: Starbucks Corporation sees the total addressable market for coffee products growing by a decent clip over the coming years, which is forecasted to reach ~$450 billion in 2023. Image Source: Starbucks Corporation – 2020 Biennial Investor Day Presentation. On December 9, Starbucks Corp hosted its biennial Investor Day meeting, held virtually this year due to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic and updated its financial guidance for the next several fiscal years. For reference, Starbucks’ GAAP revenues and GAAP operating income fell 11% and 62% year-over-year, respectively, in fiscal 2020 (period ended September 27, 2020) as the company contended with headwinds created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Looking ahead, Starbucks expects to realize a “significant rebound” in fiscal 2021 and “outsize growth” in fiscal 2022, particularly as it concerns its non-GAAP EPS performance. We expect to raise our fair value estimate modestly upon the next update.

Dec 4, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week December 4
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Nov 27, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week November 27
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Nov 16, 2020

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process
With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company's revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There's a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Nov 4, 2020

Coca-Cola’s 3.3% Dividend Yield Not Bad
Image Source: Coca-Cola. Members know that we prefer debt-averse companies, and Coca-Cola is not one of them. We would prefer the company deleverage and re-build its borrowing capacity to prepare for the inevitable step up in attacks against sugary sodas that are sure to heat up in coming decades. For the time being, however, Coca-Cola is a free-cash-flow generating powerhouse with a business model that has stood the test of time, despite vastly changing consumer preferences during the past 100+ years. With strong dividend growth/health ratings and a very attractive dividend yield relative to today’s 10-year Treasury, income and dividend growth investors may want to take a look at this beverage giant.

Oct 19, 2020

PepsiCo Earnings Update
Image Shown: PepsiCo Inc’s expansive snacks and beverage portfolio is home to 23 brands that generated $1+ billion in annual retail sales in 2019. We are big fans of PepsiCo’s business model but caution that the firm’s net debt load needs to be closely monitored going forward, especially given management’s generous approach to dividends and share repurchases. Image Source: PepsiCo Inc – CAGNY 2020 IR Presentation. PepsiCo reported third-quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended September 5, 2020) that beat both top- and bottom-line consensus estimates. PepsiCo’s organic revenue growth, a non-GAAP metric, stood out. During the fiscal third quarter and the first three quarters of fiscal 2020, PepsiCo’s organic revenue growth clocked in at 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. For the full fiscal year, management is guiding for ~4% annual organic sales growth at PepsiCo. In May 2020, PepsiCo increased its quarterly dividend, and the firm was happy to announce that this marked its 48th consecutive year of annual dividend increases. PepsiCo has paid out quarterly dividends since 1965 and remains very committed to rewarding its shareholders. Organic sales growth will provide a tremendous amount of support to PepsiCo’s cash flows going forward.

Sep 3, 2020

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.

Sep 1, 2020

Valuentum Website Overview
Overview of the key features of www.valuentum.com (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information.

Jul 23, 2020

Earnings Update: LMT, ISRG, KO, PM
Image Source: As with many companies these days, Coca-Cola pulled its 2020 outlook due to uncertainties surrounding COVID-19. Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. We released a few preliminary thoughts on second quarter earnings in our note here, but we wanted to elaborate on a few new reports, too. Lockheed Martin is included in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, while Intuitive Surgical was highlighted as a COVID-19 play during the March swoon. Coca-Cola remains an excellent bellwether on the global economy, while Philip Morris remains a holding in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio (subscribe). Let’s cover the second quarter reports from these companies in this note.

Jun 16, 2020

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks
Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. In addition to unlimited quantitative easing and "whatever it takes, squared" Fed policy, today, June 16, the Trump administration announced that it is weighing a $1 trillion stimulus bill to help support the economy. While uncertainties remain regarding specifics of the bill (it might include state assistance, extension of unemployment benefits, etc.), the move is consistent with the outsize spending we expect to further bolster the bull case, "ICYMI -- Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am." We continue to emphasize that, in light of unlimited QE and runaway fiscal stimulus, the longer-duration components of intrinsic values are expanding considerably, and as a result, fair values, themselves, are actually rising during this recession and pandemic [a good estimate of the value of the S&P 500 today may be between 3,530-3,920, as outlined in the following: "Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes.]."