Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 12, 2018

The Dividend Cushion Meets the Dividend Aristocrats
We showcase the Dividend Cushion ratios for the Dividend Aristocrats, a grouping of firms that have increased their dividends for more than 20 consecutive years. The Dividend Cushion's track record of quantifying excess cash-flow capacity that leads to outsize dividend growth and assessing cash shortfalls that lead to dividend cuts has been excellent.

Mar 12, 2018

The "Luck" and "Randomness" of Index Funds
If the year-to-year performance of active funds relative to index funds can be considered “random,” so then is the year-to-year performance of index funds relative to active funds, regardless of fees and expenses. Image shown: page 1 of 14.

Feb 18, 2018

Subscribe: The Nelson Exclusive Is Simply One of a Kind
“I think the Nelson Exclusive publication is worth far more than what we charge for it, and we’re making it even better.”

Feb 15, 2018

Cisco Rallies Big Time!
Image shown: Performance of the S&P 500 (SPY) since August 2017. As US equities continue their newly-found volatility, let’s take a look at some recent earnings reports and other developments around the markets. Cisco, the workhorse of both simulated newsletter portfolios, put up a fantastic report and upped its dividend. Berkshire continues to love Apple, and we maintain the view that the 10-year Treasury rate may be the greatest determinant of how well stocks perform in the coming decades. Airlines, garbage stocks, the “gas tax,” and more.

Jan 5, 2018

Admit It: You Know Nothing About the Dividend
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about how the concept of a dividend is completely miscontrued due to societal and cultural reasons, but he also explains why he likes dividends. Warning: He's going to bust out Monopoly pieces. You don't want to miss this! Running time: ~15 minutes.

Dec 24, 2017

I Love Dividends But the Dividend Discount Model is DEAD!
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson gives a plethora of reasons why the dividend discount model is dead and expresses his worries about how it continues to be used academically and professionally. Also included is a discussion about why the weighted average cost of capital, or the WACC, is used in the enterprise free cash flow valuation process, or the free cash flow to the firm process. Running time: ~13 minutes.

Dec 19, 2017

Video: Quants! You're NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson's Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.

Nov 26, 2017

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform
Image Source: DonkeyHotey. Donald Trump and team are working hard to “Make America Great Again,” and lowering tax rates on corporations is a key initiative. Nobody knows for sure whether such efforts will come to fruition, but knowing how to use our research and understanding the fair value estimate range puts you ahead of the crowd, if it hasn’t already.

Nov 8, 2017

Alphabet Soars to New Highs, Priceline Tumbles
Image shown: Alphabet’s shares have been surging higher, and we think the move is justified on the basis of our fair value estimate. Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Alphabet continues to drive tremendous fundamental performance via its strength in search, and its pipeline of new opportunities may offer another blockbuster product in the years ahead. Priceline, on the other hand, has been under selling pressure following a disappointing bottom-line outlook for the fourth quarter.

Oct 25, 2017

Analysis of Marcus Corp (MCS) and Schneider National Trucking (SNDR)
Image Source: Dan. Marcus Corp has done well in establishing itself as a meaningful regional player in the movie theater market, and its ability to outperform the industry in terms of box office results and profitability in its movie theater operations--thanks in part to its solid portfolio of owned real estate--is impressive. However, inconsistent free cash flow generation and a notable debt load give us some reason for pause, as does its weak Dividend Cushion ratio, and we see little valuation opportunity present in shares at this time. Schneider National Trucking operates a broad portfolio of freight transportation and logistics solutions that appear to be positioned well for profitable growth thanks to a diversified customer base, the proliferation of e-commerce, and potential margin-expanding initiatives. We generally prefer the business models of more asset-light peers, however, as the company’s free cash flow generation suffers due to the capital intensity of maintaining of a fleet of owned transportation equipment. We’re expecting ongoing expansion in its cash flow generating capacity, as a result of ongoing cash flow from operations expansion and lower capital spending in the near term, but shares of Schneider are trading firmly in the upper half of our fair value estimate range at the moment.