Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 22, 2022

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater
Image: Erica Nicol. Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor may be doing much worse. Our timing to exit some very speculative ideas in the Exclusive publication has been impeccable. Beware of “best-fitted” backtest data regarding sequence of return risks. Research is to help you navigate the future, not the past. We remain bullish on stocks for the long haul and grow more and more excited as our simulated newsletter portfolios continue to hold up very well. Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. Stick with the largest, strongest growth names. We still like large cap growth and big cap tech, though we are tactical overweight in the largest energy stocks (e.g. XOM, CVX, XLE). The latest short idea in the Exclusive publication has collapsed aggressively since highlight January 9, and we remain encouraged by the resilience of ideas in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and ESG Newsletter portfolio. Our options idea generation remains ongoing.

Dec 26, 2021

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good
Valuentum's President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds.

Nov 16, 2021

The Valuentum Weekly Is a Hit! Only Delivered By Email!
The Valuentum Weekly is a brand-new weekly market commentary from Valuentum Securities, released each weekend in digital form. The Valuentum Weekly offers members a weekly synopsis of the markets and major events. It will be straight and to-the-point. Our goal is to deliver to you the latest information and insights. We welcome your feedback on how we can make the Valuentum Weekly as useful and as relevant for you as ever!

Nov 12, 2021

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.

Oct 29, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week October 29
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Aug 3, 2021

Rounding Up the 2Q Earnings Reports of Some of America’s Most Recognizable Brands: Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Ford, Boeing, and Procter & Gamble
Image Source: Valuentum. The world is bouncing back in a big way from the coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, and some of America’s top brands have put up impressive calendar second-quarter results. Ford’s performance may have been the most interesting from an investor perspective, and we continue to warn against Boeing in light of its weak cash-based fundamentals and the tremendous flexibility that program accounting can have with respect to GAAP financials. Though the following five companies are not included in the newsletter portfolios, they should be on your radar, especially as it relates to market-moving trends and economic information: Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Ford, Boeing, and Procter & Gamble.

Jun 1, 2021

ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.

Apr 27, 2021

Tesla Scaling Up Nicely
Image Shown: Tesla is steadily working towards bringing another manufacturing facility online in the US, this time near Austin, Texas. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Shareholder Letter Covering the First Quarter of 2021. Electric vehicle (‘EV’) giant Tesla continues to impress as it smashed past consensus top- and bottom-line estimates when it reported first quarter 2021 earnings on April 26. The company delivered 184,800 vehicles (182,780 Model 3/Y variants and 2,020 Model S/X variants) and produced 180,338 vehicles in the first quarter of this year, though we note that Tesla only produced Model 3/Y variants last quarter and Model S/X vehicle deliveries were met via its inventory. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla’s ‘automotive revenues’ of $9.0 billion were up 75% year-over-year, its GAAP revenues of $10.4 billion were up 74% year-over-year, and its GAAP net income came in north of $0.4 billion (up sharply from year-ago levels).

Apr 8, 2021

The Best Years Are Ahead
The wind is at our backs. The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets to remain overpriced for some time). Bond yields are paltry and will likely stay that way for some time, requiring advisors to rethink their asset mixes. The stock market looks to be the place to be long term, as it has always been. With all the tools at the disposal of government officials, economic collapse (as in the Great Depression) may no longer be even a minor probability in the decades to come--unlike in the past with the capitalistic mindset that governed the Federal Reserve before the “Lehman collapse."

Feb 14, 2021

Earnings Roundup: DIS, GM, PEP, TWTR, UA
Image Shown: A look at the 2022 GM HUMMER EV pickup truck that is due to launch by the end of this year. Image Source: General Motors Company – Fourth Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Earnings season is roaring along, and we cover the reports of five more companies across different sectors in this article (Disney, General Motors, Pepsi, Twitter, and Under Armour). The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic continues to loom large, though we are encouraged by reports from Moderna that its existing COVID-19 vaccine approved for emergency use is at least somewhat effective at treating variants of the virus according to initial clinical trials (a lot more work needs to be done on the subject). Global health authorities are working to put an end to the public health crisis, though COVID-19 virus variants have created additional obstacles on that front. However, we still expect the COVID-19 pandemic will be brought under control sooner than many expect as global vaccine distribution efforts become more widespread and efficient. A common theme across earnings reports is that (most) of the companies in this article view their outlooks favorably, though serious short-term headwinds remain in some instances. Video streaming services continue to be in high demand, major automakers are stepping up their EV investments, demand for consumer staples products remains healthy, the digital advertising market is resilient, and retailers are leaning heavily on their omni-channel selling capabilities to ride out the storm caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.