Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Apr 13, 2020

Historic Oil Deal Reached
Image Source: Chevron Corporation - March 2020 Security Analyst Meeting Presentation. Over the Easter holiday weekend, members from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (‘OPEC’), non-OPEC members that are part of the OPEC+ group (countries that in the recent past have joined forces with OPEC to curtail global oil supplies in a formal manner), and non-OPEC members outside of the OPEC+ group such as Brazil, Canada, and the United States came to an agreement to cut their collective oil output by north of 10 million barrels per day. Global oil and other raw energy resource prices have been simply demolished year-to-date due to a combination of demand destruction from the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic and the emergence of a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Please note that oil demand destruction due to the “cocooning” of households (and the related drop off in refined petroleum product demand from automobiles, airplanes, etc.) may be as high as 35 million barrels per day according to some analysts, an enormous figure that’s resulting in major stockpile buildups all over the world. Other analysts don’t necessarily see the level of demand destruction as that high (projections are being updated constantly); however, they are still calling for a drop off in demand that’s in the ten(s) of millions of oil barrels per day range (at least in the short-term, depending on how long the pandemic lasts). Even if this agreement is effectively implemented, that won’t result in oil prices (and other raw energy resource prices) returning to pre-COVID-19 levels in the short/medium-term, in our view, but will make emerging from this pandemic an easier task given that global oil storage capacity is nearing its limit. As of this writing on April 13, oil prices are trading up modestly but are still down by well over 50% year-to-date.

Aug 29, 2019

Where Are the Safe Havens?
"We believe that staying diversified as in holding a broad swath of ideas as in either the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio or Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as the equity portion of one’s allocation makes a lot of sense in any environment...High yield dividend investing may become more and more popular in coming years as rates across the globe approach 0%, and the amount of negative-yielding debt proliferates." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

Jun 3, 2019

Now a Trade War on Multiple Fronts!
“To complicate matters further, President Trump also announced that he is looking to tariffs on Mexico if the country doesn’t take steps to stop the flow of illegal immigration. The US is now fighting a trade war on two fronts.” – Brian Nelson, CFA

Feb 7, 2019

General Motors Rallies, Tesla and Toyota Improve, Auto Parts Suppliers Getting Squeezed
Image shown: General Motors may very well be on its way to $50+ per share.We continue to like General Motors, and we think Tesla is getting back on the right track with its financials. Toyota is improving, too. Auto parts suppliers, however, are facing pressure as the potential for a slowdown in global light vehicle production rises and input cost inflation makes its presence felt.

Mar 7, 2018

Protectionists Gaining Control, Implications on Europe and China
It looks like the US-imposed tariffs are moving forward, and we’re starting to hear chatter about retaliation from Europe. Could China be next? Canada and Mexico may be exempt from the tariffs, however.

Jan 23, 2018

Bioverativ’s Takeout, Visa’s Surge, and General Electric’s Pain
From Bioverativ’s takeout to Visa’s stock price surge to General Electric’s continued pain, there’s a lot going on in the stock market. Let’s cover some ground.

Nov 15, 2016

Opinion: China-US Trade Augmented, Not Paralyzed Under Trump
Image Source: Fuzzy Gerdes. China is threatening a “tit-for-tat” approach in the event President-elect Trump moves forward with stiff tariffs on imports from the country.

Nov 10, 2016

Assessing Reactions to Trump’s Victory
Image Source: Gage Skidmore. Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States of America. Let’s dig into some of the reactions across the market. We’re keeping our cool.

Oct 28, 2016

Podcast: Markets In Motion
The Valuentum analyst team covers market moving information that is top of mind from consumer staples valuations, the political election cycle, utility valuations, energy resource pricing, biotech considerations, Brexit uncertainty and beyond. ~8 minutes.

Oct 8, 2016

Currency: Cases in Probabilistic Thinking
The rally in the Mexican peso relative to the US dollar during the first Trump-Clinton debate of 2016 showcased the increased likelihood of a Clinton victory, in light of Trump's current political agenda. Instances like this, where currency markets serve to act as a probability indicator of the likelihood of a future event, have occurred through the course of history, the most fasinating of which happened during the American Civil War and with Confederate scrip specifically.