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Valuentum Commentary
Oct 28, 2025
Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot? Oct 28, 2025
Your Role as a Choice Architect
Image: Impact Hub Global Network. Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge, co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. At Valuentum, we can never provide personalized buy/sell advice, but in providing publishing services, we've opted for the healthy option for members, and that sometimes means you won't find a large selection of dessert options. This isn't a shortcoming of our service (i.e. we know desserts are tempting), but rather a key positive attribute. As we've shown time and time again, you don't need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen. Here's to your long-term financial health! Sep 19, 2025
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 19
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Jul 31, 2025
Microsoft Puts Up Awesome Fiscal Fourth Quarter Results
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to fiscal 2026, Microsoft expects to deliver another year of double-digit revenue and operating income growth. Management noted that it “will continue to invest against the expansive opportunity ahead across both capital expenditures and operating expenses given (its) leadership position in commercial cloud, strong demand signals for (its) cloud and AI offerings, and significant contracted backlog.” Capital expenditures are expected to be over $30 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Microsoft is firing on all cylinders, and we continue to like the idea in the newsletter portfolios. May 19, 2025
3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 6, 2025
Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. May 1, 2025
Microsoft’s Cloud Business Performing Better Than Expected
Image: Microsoft’s shares have held up well in this volatile market environment. In the quarter, Microsoft returned $9.7 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. Total cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $79.6 billion at the end of the quarter, while debt totaled $42.9 billion. Cash flow from operations increased to $37 billion from $31.9 billion in the three months ended March 31, while capital expenditures were $16.7 billion, up from $11 billion in the prior-year quarter. We continue to be huge fans of Microsoft, and the company delivered in its fiscal third quarter results. Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Jan 30, 2025
Microsoft Issues Fiscal Second Quarter Results
Image Source: Microsoft. Looking to the fiscal third quarter, Microsoft expects Azure revenue growth to be between 31%-32% in constant currency. Revenue growth for the fiscal third quarter is expected in the range of $67.7-$68.7 billion, below the consensus forecast of $69.8 billion. For all of fiscal 2025, management expects total revenue to grow double digits, operating expenses to grow in the single-digits, and operating income to grow in the double digits. Operating margins are expected to be up slightly year-over-year. Though Azure revenue growth and fiscal third quarter guidance may have come in a little light of what the Street was looking for, we still like Microsoft as a core idea in the newsletter portfolios.
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Image Source: TradingView. Microsoft’s Azure and other cloud services revenue increased 40% (up 39% in constant currency) in the quarter. The company returned $10.7 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases during the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Looking to the fiscal second quarter, revenue is targeted to be between $79.5-$80.6 billion, growth of 14%-16%, compared to expectations of $80.08 billion. Azure is expected to grow 37% in constant currency in the quarter “as demand remains significantly ahead of the capacity (it) has available.” Though some expected more from Microsoft, we thought the quarter and outlook was solid. The company remains a core holding in the newsletter portfolios.