ValuentumAd

Official PayPal Seal

Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Apr 8, 2021
The Best Years Are Ahead
The wind is at our backs. The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets to remain overpriced for some time). Bond yields are paltry and will likely stay that way for some time, requiring advisors to rethink their asset mixes. The stock market looks to be the place to be long term, as it has always been. With all the tools at the disposal of government officials, economic collapse (as in the Great Depression) may no longer be even a minor probability in the decades to come--unlike in the past with the capitalistic mindset that governed the Federal Reserve before the “Lehman collapse."
Feb 8, 2021
Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!
Jan 27, 2021
ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios
Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we're raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially considering the vast "gains" from the March 2020 bottom and the increased systemic risks arising from price-agnostic trading (read Value Trap). The individual holdings will be reduced in proportion to arrive at the new targeted cash weighting in the respective simulated newsletter portfolios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter are scheduled for release February 1. We'll have more to say soon.
Jan 15, 2021
Steris Ties the Knot with Cantel Medical
Image Shown: Cantel Medical Corp is getting bought out by Steris PLC through a cash-and-stock deal. The image up above highlights Cantel Medical’s promising long-term growth outlook, though its performance in 2020 was subdued due to headwinds created by the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. In our view, Steris was attracted to Cantel Medical’s improving outlook (the latter started to stage an impressive rebound in the second half of calendar year 2020) and the ability for the combined firm to generate substantial synergies. Image Source: Cantel Medical Corp – December 2020 IR Presentation. On January 12, Steris PLC announced it had reached an agreement with Cantel Medical to buy the company through a cash-and-stock deal worth ~$3.6 billion (~$4.6 billion when including the assumption of debt and convertible notes) that valued CMD at $84.66 per share based on the closing price of STE on January 11. The deal includes $16.93 in cash and 0.33787 share of STE for each share of CMD. Steris is heavily focused on sterilization products for hospitals and laboratories (it also provides related services). The company intends to fund the cash component of its deal for Cantel Medical with new debt issuance and committed bridge financing, which will also be used to refinance most of Cantel Medical’s existing debt. Shares of Cantel Medical have advanced ~38% (as of the end of normal trading hours January 13) from when we first wrote about the idea back in early December 2020. Even before the acquisition was announced, investors started to warm back up to the company due to expectations that the headwinds that held the firm back last year would start to dissipate this year. In our view, Steris’ acquisition of Cantel Medical is highly complementary. It appears Steris was optimistic that Cantel Medical’s long-term growth outlook remained bright even though the firm had a rough 2020.
Dec 8, 2020
Cantel Medical Surges Higher
Image Shown: Shares of Cantel Medical Corp popped higher during normal trading hours December 8 after the firm’s latest earnings report indicated its recovery was well underway. On December 8, Cantel Medical Corp reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended October 31, 2020) that beat both top- and bottom-line consensus estimates. Furthermore, Cantel Medical’s $297 million in GAAP revenues last fiscal quarter exceeded the top end of its forecast that was published on October 22, which had been raised above the revenue guidance range management put forward during the firm’s fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 earnings call that was held on September 17. We published a note back on December 2 highlighting that “we think Cantel Medical is one for the radar of a risk-seeking investor” on the back of its improving near-term revenue outlook. In that article, we mentioned that it was crucial for Cantel Medical to show signs that its margins were moving in the right direction after deteriorating over the past couple of fiscal years. During its latest earnings report, Cantel Medical’s financial performance clearly indicated that a recovery was well underway.
Dec 2, 2020
Things Are Looking Up at Cantel Medical But Many Risks Remain
Image Source: Cantel Medical Corporation – Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings for Fiscal 2020 IR Presentation. Medical device and instrument maker Cantel Medical will be a major beneficiary of recent news regarding the growing chances that a safe and viable COVID-19 vaccine will potentially get approved soon. Though the company’s financial performance has deteriorated in recent fiscal years and organic revenue has faced headwinds, the firm’s upwardly-revised guidance (particularly its sales guidance) for the first quarter of fiscal 2021 was a highly encouraging sign, and Cantel noted that the level of elective medical procedures are starting to stabilize. Its recent October 2019 acquisition of Hu-Friedy’s dental operations will put the company in a better position to compete for business as well, though we note rising confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations around the world continue to pose a threat to the pace of elective surgeries/procedures. Cantel’s near-term outlook is looking up, in our view, but high financial leverage (net debt to adjusted EBITDA), weak organic growth trends, rising expected operating expenses and capital spending, stronger and larger rivals that compete through bundling partnerships across the medical device/instrument arena, moderate customer concentration risk, and recent capital-spending cutbacks (coupled with a suspended dividend) to shore up capital put this idea firmly in the high-risk/speculative category. Nonetheless, given signs of a turnaround based on the recent guidance raise, we think Cantel Medical is one for the radar of a risk-seeking investor. We’ll be paying close attention to its revenue and margin performance when it reports fiscal first-quarter 2021 earnings December 8.
Sep 3, 2020
3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years
Image Source: http://www.epictop10.com/. "When I left as director in the equity and credit department at Morningstar in 2011, I thought I knew a whole heck of a lot about investing. I felt like I was one in the top 5-10 in the world as it relates to the category of practical knowledge of enterprise valuation (maybe include Koller at McKinsey, Mauboussin at Counterpoint, and Damadoran at Stern on this list). After all, I oversaw the valuation infrastructure of a department that used the process extensively, and the firm was among just a few that used enterprise valuation systematically. Then, at Valuentum, our small team would go on to build/update 20,000+ more enterprise valuation models. There can always be someone else out there, of course, but I don't think anybody has worked within the DCF model as much as I have across so many different companies. That said, through the past near-10 years managing Valuentum's simulated newsletter portfolios, I've also learned a number of things to become an even better portfolio manager." -- Brian Nelson, CFA
Sep 3, 2020
Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.
Jun 16, 2020
Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks
Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. In addition to unlimited quantitative easing and "whatever it takes, squared" Fed policy, today, June 16, the Trump administration announced that it is weighing a $1 trillion stimulus bill to help support the economy. While uncertainties remain regarding specifics of the bill (it might include state assistance, extension of unemployment benefits, etc.), the move is consistent with the outsize spending we expect to further bolster the bull case, "ICYMI -- Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am." We continue to emphasize that, in light of unlimited QE and runaway fiscal stimulus, the longer-duration components of intrinsic values are expanding considerably, and as a result, fair values, themselves, are actually rising during this recession and pandemic [a good estimate of the value of the S&P 500 today may be between 3,530-3,920, as outlined in the following: "Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes.]."
Jun 15, 2020
ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected
Image: The market's levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum's text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. This week is setting up to be yet another volatile week of trading, but nothing too surprising. We've talked extensively about outsize levels of volatility in the book Value Trap, and many of our predictions regarding the magnitude of volatility have come to fruition, as described in this note here. But as we've also noted in Value Trap, we don't think increased volatility is a transient development. The Fed and Treasury have only further emboldened price-agnostic trading (indexing/quant) with recent bailout actions, and volatility and momentum funds, which exacerbate the swings, will only grow as a percentage of trading volumes. The magnitude of market volatility during the COVID-19 crisis has certainly been immense. During March for example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had 8 consecutive days with a 4% move in either direction (this is the first time in history this happened--not even during the tumultuous times of the Crash of 1929 or Black Monday of 1987 or the Great Financial Crisis did this happen). Intra-day volatility has also been considerable, and it has become commonplace for equity futures to swing wildly before market open. Now, more than ever, investors need a steady hand at the wheel.


Latest Press Releases



The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.