Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 19, 2017

Nelson on Bogle, Part I
Image shown: An example illustrating how the dividend is a component of capital appreciation that otherwise would have been achieved had the dividend not been paid. Such a situation applies to both regular and special dividends. "The kind of commentary that makes broad generalizations about expectations of future returns is exactly why people are so eager to get into passive investment strategies. Since the 1920s, it seems as though the individual investor has assumed the stock market was rigged or impossible for average Joes to figure out, but instead of the "I'll get it next time" mentality that was present leading to the crash of '29, individual investors have "evolved" to the point that now the idea is if you can't beat the market, just buy the whole thing. Leaders like Bogle continue to take tremendous shortcuts in explaining forecasts, leaving the average investor like a student trying to copy math homework off a peer that didn't show his/her work. When the test comes around, and the problem is a bit different, the copier is up a creek." -- The Valuentum Team

Nov 15, 2017

Buffalo Wild Wings Should Go Private and Hasbro Should Buy Mattel…But at the Right Price
Image Source: Hasbro. There is a lot happening across the M&A landscape as of late. Buffalo Wild Wings has reportedly received a go-private offer, while speculation is swirling that Hasbro is looking to gobble up Mattel. We like the prospects of both scenarios. However, price will always matter. Buffalo Wild Wings should hold out for the very best offer, while Hasbro should be very careful not to overpay for assets that may be past their prime.

Sep 30, 2017

Amazon Casts a Large Shadow Over the Pharmacy Industry
Image Source:  Mike Mozart. It is our belief the food retailing industry is in the midst of widespread disruption with Amazon’s attempt to break into the supermarket game with its audacious purchase of Whole Foods. The Whole Foods acquisition is not likely to be an isolated one-off event; instead, it may be a harbinger of Amazon’s ambition to break into new markets, thus expanding its overall percentage of retail sales. We update our views on Amazon and how the company may eventually impact newsletter portfolio holding CVS Health.

Sep 12, 2017

Target, Kroger Launch Counterattack on Amazon-Whole Foods; Industry Earnings to Shrink
Image Source: Valuentum. The pricing war has begun, but it may take years before we see the final effects. Only the strongest may come out ahead, and only those already focusing on giving customers the very best value proposition at the lowest prices may retain share.

Aug 18, 2017

CVS Health Still Stuck in Neutral
Image Source: CVS Health. CVS Health continues to perform as expected in the current lower reimbursement environment. We remain enthused with the copious amount of free cash flow that the enterprise produces, which has allowed management to continue its shareholder-friendly ways. We remain vigilant for signs of a key inflection point, however, and a catalyst may exist in the results of the current PBM selling season.

Aug 7, 2017

Generic Drug Price Deflation Continues to Weigh on Shares of Teva
Shares of former Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Teva Pharmaceuticals have come under renewed selling pressure after reporting weak quarterly results due largely to deflationary price pressures felt in the generic drug division. Teva has been relatively powerless in stopping the trend. We had removed the shares from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio well before the last leg down, and the Dividend Cushion ratio warned of tremendous risk to the sustainability of the dividend far in advance.

Aug 3, 2017

Video: Explaining the Valuentum Buying Index
The Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) stands on the shoulders of giants in finance in uncovering investment ideas.

Jun 16, 2017

Amazon To Buy Whole Foods: Not Creative Destruction, Just Destruction
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Amazon announced plans to buy Whole Foods. We’re viewing the news as affirmation of our decision to stay largely away from retail exposure in the newsletter portfolios. We think a bidding war for Whole Foods is possible, mostly to keep it and its real estate out of the hands of Amazon, potentially setting up for a true “winner’s curse” scenario. The winner will overpay.

Jun 5, 2017

Labor and the Economic Cycle
As we arguably near the “peak” in the business cycle, labor is starting to demand more, a dynamic that we believe is emblematic of the period of aging economic expansion. Let’s have a look at what’s happening in the fight for higher wages.

May 20, 2017

Walmart Comes Roaring Back; Target Is Still Suffering
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Walmart and Target have taken a few body blows from Amazon, but the fight is far from over. Walmart is executing much better than Target at the moment.