Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 15, 2024

Your Role as a Choice Architect
Image: Impact Hub Global Network. Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge, co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. At Valuentum, we can never provide personalized buy/sell advice, but in providing publishing services, we've opted for the healthy option for members, and that sometimes means you won't find a large selection of dessert options. This isn't a shortcoming of our service (i.e. we know desserts are tempting), but rather a key positive attribute. As we've shown time and time again, you don't need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen. Here's to your long-term financial health!

Jan 8, 2024

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Dec 20, 2023

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Dec 16, 2023

ICYMI -- Video: Our Top Stocks for 2024
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Nelson walks through the success of Valuentum's newsletter suite, the state of the economy and markets, and offers his favorite idea for each sector. Tune into this must-watch video.

Nov 16, 2023

Concerns Over Walmart’s Outlook Overblown
Image: Walmart’s free cash flow generation during the first nine months of its fiscal year has shown a nice jump. On November 16, Walmart reported third quarter results for fiscal 2024 that showed revenue growth of 5.2% and adjusted operating income expansion of 3%. Adjusted earnings per share nudged up 2% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis. Operating cash flow during the first nine months of the year came in at $19 billion (up $3.3 billion from the year ago period), while free cash flow came in at $4.3 billion (up $0.7 billion on a year-over-year basis). The big box retailer ended the period with a ~$43.2 billion net debt position and has bought back 8.7 million shares of stock on a year-to-date basis. Walmart raised its outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2024, but its targets came in a bit shy of expectations. With shares trading down following the report, we think the market is overreacting. We won’t be making any changes to our $160 per share fair value estimate.

Sep 27, 2023

In the News: McDonald’s, Costco, Target
The market is once again worried about a potential government shutdown in the U.S., beginning on Sunday, as Congress works on a budget for fiscal 2024 through the rest of September. This recurring news has been a seasonal part of the market’s jitters every few years or so, however, and we’re not worried about what we would describe as an overhyped risk. A potential government shutdown in the U.S., if it happens, will inevitably be resolved, and while it tends to make for scary media headlines, it just doesn’t factor into the thesis of long-term investors. We don’t think readers should overreact.

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

Sep 6, 2023

Latest Report Updates Reveal Tremendous Dividend Strength at Walmart
Our latest report updates showcased one very big observation, and that was the tremendous dividend strength of Walmart. The big box retailer’s Dividend Cushion ratio is rock-solid, and improved inventory management has worked wonders on operating cash flow this year, driving it to $18.2 billion during the six months ended July 31 from $9.24 billion in the same period a year ago, all the while organized retail theft remains a huge industry-wide problem. Though shares of Walmart are widely followed and are fairly valued on the basis of our discounted cash-flow process, we stand in awe of the company’s resurgence in free cash flow generation and believe that the firm offers a nice foundation to the markets. Walmart is on a short list of entities that we’d be looking to add to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio at the right price, near the lower end of our updated fair value estimate range.

Aug 22, 2023

Theft Becoming a Huge Problem for Retailers
Image Source: Ben Schuman. Theft has always been a problem for retailers, but it has never been as big of a problem as it has been in recent quarters. Emboldened by the lack of police response and employees sometimes getting fired for confronting shoplifters, retail organized crime is on the rise. We’re not talking theft in the millions, or billions, but likely in the tens of billions per year or more across the U.S. Some attribute the rise of organized retail crime to the pandemic, which paved the way for shoplifters to post their loot online in order to make a quick buck. Some retailers are especially feeling the pinch, and recent commentary reveals just how bad retail theft (shrink) has become to their respective businesses.