Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 19, 2023

Consumers Feeling the Pinch; S&P 500 Bounces Off Technical Resistance; Elasticities Breaking Down for Staples Stocks
Image: The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance and will likely test 3,400, in our view. Image Source: TradingView. Things continue to deteriorate across the broader U.S. economy, but it's worth reiterating that the economy is not the stock market. The labor markets remain strong, but we continue to hear of layoffs across Silicon Valley, consumers are working through their excess savings built up during the pandemic, while net charge offs are expected to double in 2023 as credit quality deteriorates. Consumer staples names may be struggling to make elasticities work of late in light of the weakness in operating income in P&G’s calendar fourth-quarter 2022 results. Consumers are finding ways to trade down to private-label products. The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance, and we could test 3,400 during the year on the index. We remain bullish on stocks in the long run, however.

Dec 16, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 16
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Nov 18, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of November 18
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Oct 28, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 28
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Oct 27, 2022

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.

Oct 21, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 21
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Oct 8, 2022

Microsoft Hinted at Trouble in Calendar Q2 But AMD’s Massive $1 Billion Quarterly Q3 Revenue Miss Spells Big Problems for PC Market; Search and News Advertising Revenue Also Likely Weakening Substantially
Image Source: Fritzchens Fritz. Economic conditions have deteriorated rapidly since Microsoft warned about deteriorating PC market demand in July of this year. AMD’s preliminary third-quarter report announced October 6 showed a massive $1 billion miss relative to prior expectations, and we think this is the beginning of a vicious cyclical downturn in the semiconductor industry, with few immune to the troubles, particularly in light of Apple’s warning about iPhone 14 demand. Further, we think search and news advertising has likely deteriorated since the calendar second-quarter reporting season, too, and this doesn’t bode well for the likes of Alphabet and Meta Platforms. Recent news about the strength of Tiktok and the lack of enthusiasm by Meta Platforms’ insiders that are building the metaverse have us thinking that Meta has turned into a value trap. We won’t hesitate to drop shares if the company’s outlook in its third-quarter report comes up short.

Sep 13, 2022

Nelson Nailed Food Price Inflation Risks; Markets Heading Lower
Image Source: Liz West. The August CPI report, released September 13, showed that consumer prices advanced 8.3% on a year-over-year basis and are still accelerating, increasing 0.1 percent from July, where the pace was unchanged. Milk was up 17%, poultry up 15.9%, while eggs were up 39.8% in the August CPI report. We don’t think the market was expecting this sizable food price increase, but we were – a view that accounted for one of the reasons for our move to a more bearish stance last month.

Sep 11, 2022

U.S. Housing Market Showing Signs of Weakness
Image Shown: The U.S. housing market is starting to show signs of weakness. Companies involved in the home building business in the U.S. are starting to feel the heat, with the iShares US Home Construction ETF down ~30% year-to-date as of early September 2022 on a price-only basis. The national U.S. housing market has been on fire during the past few years. Sharp increases in U.S. housing prices are now contending with rising mortgage rates, which is prompting the question, are U.S. housing prices heading for a crash? Affordability issues are rampant, with many households now priced out of the market, and signs of weakness are emerging in the U.S. housing market. We think the prospect for rising mortgage interest rates could send housing prices spiraling lower, but nothing like that of the housing crisis of 2007-2009.

Sep 9, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 9
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.