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Valuentum Reports
Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Jul 22, 2021
Johnson & Johnson Beats Estimates, Raises Guidance Once Again
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Second Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On July 21, Johnson & Johnson reported second-quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company (once again) boosted its full-year guidance in conjunction with its latest earnings update as Johnson & Johnson’s business is steadily rebounding from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, with an eye towards the ongoing recovery in the sales of its medical devices and related offerings. We include shares of JNJ as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Its latest earnings report and guidance boost reinforced our favorable view towards the name. Shares of JNJ yield ~2.5% as of this writing, and the top end of our recently updated fair value estimate range sits at $206 per share of Johnson & Johnson, well above where shares are trading at as of this writing.
Jul 21, 2021
Philip Morris’ Transformation Continues
Image Shown: Philip Morris International Inc’s IQOS offering, a heated tobacco unit product (also classified as a “reduced risk product” by the company) that seeks to replicate the experience of traditional cigarettes for smokers in a bid to get those users to switch over to an offering the company views as relatively “safer,” has continued to post solid user base growth of late. We are big fans of Philip Morris and its ongoing transformation and include shares of PM as an idea in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – Second Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On July 20, the company behind the Marlboro cigarette brand (excluding sales of the cigarette brand in the US) and the smokeless IQOS nicotine offering Philip Morris International reported second quarter 2021 earnings. The company missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates and boosted its full-year guidance for 2021 in conjunction with the report. Now Philip Morris expects to generate (the following are non-GAAP metrics) organic net revenue growth of 6%-7% (up from 5%-7% previously) and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 12%-14% (up from 11%-13% previously) on an annual basis in 2021 as its business steadily recovers from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic.
Jun 22, 2021
Kroger Raises Guidance After Solid Earnings Report
Image Source: Kroger Co – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Grocers are facing tough year-over-year comparisons due to the pantry stockpiling dynamic seen in 2020 in the wake of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, though demand for consumer staples products remains healthy. On June 17, Kroger Co reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended May 22, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Kroger’s management team also noted how the grocer views the current inflationary landscape, which we will cover in this note.
Jun 1, 2021
ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.
May 6, 2021
3 Strong Dividend Payers to Consider Within Consumer Staples
Image: Kellogg has raised its dividend payout each year since 2005. Image Source: Kellogg. Kellogg, Colgate-Palmolive, and Clorox offer investors solid exposure to the consumer staples space, while showcasing impressive track records with respect to dividend growth. Each has a net debt position, but all three generate traditional free cash flow in excess of cash dividends paid, meaning growth in each of their payouts should be expected. Clorox has the highest Dividend Cushion ratio of 1.6 at this time (Kellogg’s is 0.1, while Colgate-Palmolive’s is 1.4), and as one might expect, Clorox’s dividend growth prospects are the strongest out of this bunch. For example, Clorox raised its annual payout more than 7% during fiscal 2020, while both Kellogg and Colgate-Palmolive have had more modest dividend increases in recent years. Evaluating the cash-based sources of intrinsic value helps one derive a fair value estimate range, as it helps rank dividend health and dividend growth, as shown in this group's respective Dividend Cushion ratios. All things considered, Kellogg, Colgate-Palmolive, and Clorox could be valuable additions to a diversified dividend growth portfolio.
Apr 23, 2021
P&G and Kimberly-Clark Tell Two Different Stories
Image Shown: Since the beginning of 2019, on a price-only basis, Procter & Gamble (orange) has handily outpaced the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF while Kimberly-Clark (turquoise) has stumbled. Procter & Gamble’s shares have been on an incredible run the past couple years, with the company driving strong organic revenue and earnings per share growth. Kimberly-Clark, on the other hand, has been executing poorly in a market environment where one might think it should be excelling. Both of these stocks are dividend growth giants, with P&G boasting a 65-year dividend growth track record and Kimberly-Clark stringing together 49 consecutive annual dividend increases. Both also have strong Dividend Cushion ratios of 1.8 at this time, suggesting resilient dividend coverage on a go-forward basis. That said, investors will have to pay up for P&G’s dividend strength and operational tailwinds, as shares are a bit pricey based on our fair value estimate range, and even Kimberly-Clark’s valuation is only slightly more reasonable after its sharp drop following the 2021 earnings guidance cut. We expect to make a few tweaks to our valuation models following their respective calendar first-quarter 2021 reports, but if we had to pick between these two dividend growth behemoths, P&G looks like the better relative play. Shares of P&G yield ~2.6%, while shares of Kimberly-Clark yield 3.3%.
Mar 26, 2021
General Mills Prepares for Cost Inflation, Pet Business Growing Rapidly
Image Source: General Mills Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On March 24, General Mills posted third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended February 28, 2021) that beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates on a GAAP basis, though its adjusted non-GAAP bottom-line performance missed consensus estimates. General Mills has seen demand surge higher for its products in the wake of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic as households stockpiled goods and started eating at home more often. The company posted a solid fiscal third quarter earnings report, though its outlook is facing headwinds as General Mills is contending with cost inflation concerns. Shares of GIS yield ~3.4% and are trading just above our fair value estimate as of this writing, after selling off in the wake of its latest earnings report.
Feb 14, 2021
Earnings Roundup: DIS, GM, PEP, TWTR, UA
Image Shown: A look at the 2022 GM HUMMER EV pickup truck that is due to launch by the end of this year. Image Source: General Motors Company – Fourth Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Earnings season is roaring along, and we cover the reports of five more companies across different sectors in this article (Disney, General Motors, Pepsi, Twitter, and Under Armour). The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic continues to loom large, though we are encouraged by reports from Moderna that its existing COVID-19 vaccine approved for emergency use is at least somewhat effective at treating variants of the virus according to initial clinical trials (a lot more work needs to be done on the subject). Global health authorities are working to put an end to the public health crisis, though COVID-19 virus variants have created additional obstacles on that front. However, we still expect the COVID-19 pandemic will be brought under control sooner than many expect as global vaccine distribution efforts become more widespread and efficient. A common theme across earnings reports is that (most) of the companies in this article view their outlooks favorably, though serious short-term headwinds remain in some instances. Video streaming services continue to be in high demand, major automakers are stepping up their EV investments, demand for consumer staples products remains healthy, the digital advertising market is resilient, and retailers are leaning heavily on their omni-channel selling capabilities to ride out the storm caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Feb 2, 2021
Mondelez Capturing Share, Generating Strong Free Cash Flow
Image Source: Mondelez International Inc – November 2020 IR Presentation. On January 28, snacks giant (generates most of its annual revenues from biscuits, chocolates, gum and candy) Mondelez International reported fourth quarter earnings for 2020 that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Management noted in the earnings press release that the firm “enter[ed] 2021 in a strong position financially and in the marketplace which gives us confidence that we can deliver on our long-term growth targets in 2021 and beyond.” Mondelez reported 3.7% net organic revenue growth in 2020, supported by favorable volume and pricing movements, and negatively impacted by product mix. The firm’s GAAP revenues were up just under 3% year-over-year in 2020, held down by foreign currency headwinds.
Jan 27, 2021
Fourth Quarter Earnings Reports Coming In: INTC, GGG, KMB, STLD
Image Source: Kimberly Clark Corporation – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings IR Presentation. Fourth quarter 2020 earnings season is upon us. In this note, we walk through the reports of four companies issuing results: Intel, Graco, Kimberly Clark, and Steel Dynamics. Intel is making the right call by seeking to outsource some of its production needs given its inability to produce certain current- and next-generation chips. For companies operating in the industrial sector, it appears that after a challenging first half of 2020, things are now recovering in earnest. The industrial economy appears to have entered 2021 with momentum, keeping short-term headwinds in mind. Consumer staples entities experienced strong demand growth in 2020, though it appears that many companies operating in the space now expect their organic sales growth to moderate in 2021 as the uplift from “pantry stockpiling” fades.


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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.