Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 30, 2015

Correction: Understanding the MLP Valuation Conversation
One slide speaks to the difference between what the industry is trying to sell to investors and what we are talking about. Admittedly, it is a jam-packed slide.

Oct 4, 2015

In The Name of Our Independence and Integrity…For Goodness Sake
The vicious attacks and slanderous falsehoods are inappropriate as they are damaging to our reputation. We won’t stand for it.

Sep 25, 2015

Janet Yellen, the Positive GDP Revision, and Nike’s Swoosh
Finally, there’s some good news, but nothing that could change the stormy overall picture.

Sep 18, 2015

The Fed Freezes; Outlook as Bad as Feared or Worse?
The global economy may be far worse than even some pessimists believe, as the need for a continued ZIRP (zero interest-rate policy) remains the Fed’s tactic, at least for now.

Sep 15, 2015

As the World Turns
We’re keeping our eyes on a number of things. First, we’re monitoring property prices in Shanghai and in other larger Chinese cities to assess the potential calamity that falling housing prices and deflation would have on the country’s banking sector and the likelihood of contagion via the British banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered, and the US ones, namely Citigroup and JP Morgan. Second, we’re watching the price of crude oil closely, as its fall will have huge implications on the earnings trajectory of companies that benefit (airlines, restaurants) as well as the ones that suffer (upstream and energy services). The net effect of falling crude oil prices has thus far been negative for S&P 500 earnings, but this may change as the energy sector becomes an ever-smaller part of index construction. Third, who can forget about the Fed, the expected duration of any tightening monetary cycle, and the resulting implications on dividend-paying stocks as Treasury yields rise?

Sep 9, 2015

Talking Technicals: The “Golden Triangle of Destiny”
Volatility may dampen the next few trading sessions until the Fed’s decision. The odds are stacked against the continuation of this multi-year bull market, however.

Sep 8, 2015

5 US-Centric Undervalued Stocks with Fantastic Economics
With most non-US markets crumbling, the resilience of a still-expanding US economy coupled with a strong greenback may make US stocks relative outperformers. Screen: Economic castles with a high percentage of revenue generated in the US that are trading at a large discount to our estimate of their intrinsic value.

Sep 8, 2015

Things Are So Bad They’re Actually Good?
Major economies are in recession and others are far from healthy. That has some investors in the US excited.

Sep 3, 2015

Bond Issuance Has Ground to a Halt; Expect Negative 2016 GDP Impact
We won’t feel the true economic impact of China’s collapse until 2016, but that doesn’t mean stocks won’t start discounting economic headwinds right now. Stocks have and always will be forward-looking discounting vehicles.

Sep 1, 2015

Batten Down the Hatches – Another US Market Crash Probable
The aftermath of China’s equity market collapse and the Dow’s crash last week will have material spillover effects.