Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 13, 2021

SPACs Are Good for Markets, Not SPAC-tacular for Investors
Image: Performance of the Defiance NextGen SPAC IPO ETF (SPAK), where “a 60% weighting is applied to IPO companies derived from SPACs and 40% is allocated to common stock of newly listed Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (“SPACs”), ex-warrants” has been roughly flat since inception in October 2020. According to some estimates, there were 248 Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC) that went public in 2020, raising more than $80 billion (up sixfold from a record high set in 2019). SPACs reached heightened levels of excitement in early February, but the performance of the Defiance NextGen SPAC IPO ETF (SPAK) has been roughly flat since it began trading October 2020. Most of what investors have to go on when considering a SPAC is a thorough assessment of the management team, as SPACs go public as a shell (“blank check”) company with no underlying operating business. Some forward-leaning, “out of the box” management teams may be worth rolling the dice on, but for the most part, the great many of the SPACs out there probably aren’t worth your time. Though we like the idea of more investor choice once SPACs take operations public (and new companies are listed), we’re not getting lured into the SPAC IPO boom. It’s not our style. Even diversified exposure to the SPAK ETF doesn’t sound great. We’ll be patient and evaluate the companies SPACs bring public through traditional equity analysis to see if opportunities present themselves. Prudence and care, first, always.

Apr 8, 2021

The Best Years Are Ahead
The wind is at our backs. The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets to remain overpriced for some time). Bond yields are paltry and will likely stay that way for some time, requiring advisors to rethink their asset mixes. The stock market looks to be the place to be long term, as it has always been. With all the tools at the disposal of government officials, economic collapse (as in the Great Depression) may no longer be even a minor probability in the decades to come--unlike in the past with the capitalistic mindset that governed the Federal Reserve before the “Lehman collapse."

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 29, 2021

Repub from March 5, 2018: The Tragedy of Quantitative Finance
-- Okay – it’s not 2038, but just imagine if this could happen…

Jan 27, 2021

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios
Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we're raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially considering the vast "gains" from the March 2020 bottom and the increased systemic risks arising from price-agnostic trading (read Value Trap). The individual holdings will be reduced in proportion to arrive at the new targeted cash weighting in the respective simulated newsletter portfolios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter are scheduled for release February 1. We'll have more to say soon.

Jan 27, 2021

Fourth Quarter Earnings Reports Coming In: INTC, GGG, KMB, STLD
Image Source: Kimberly Clark Corporation – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings IR Presentation. Fourth quarter 2020 earnings season is upon us. In this note, we walk through the reports of four companies issuing results: Intel, Graco, Kimberly Clark, and Steel Dynamics. Intel is making the right call by seeking to outsource some of its production needs given its inability to produce certain current- and next-generation chips. For companies operating in the industrial sector, it appears that after a challenging first half of 2020, things are now recovering in earnest. The industrial economy appears to have entered 2021 with momentum, keeping short-term headwinds in mind. Consumer staples entities experienced strong demand growth in 2020, though it appears that many companies operating in the space now expect their organic sales growth to moderate in 2021 as the uplift from “pantry stockpiling” fades.

Jan 26, 2021

Procter & Gamble Remains a Great Free Cash Flow Generator
Image Shown: Shares of Procter & Gamble Co have started to shift back down towards the top end of our fair value estimate which sits at $120 per share of PG. In our view, investors have begun to factor in expectations that the firm’s growth rate of late will be incredibly hard to sustain over the coming years. Procter & Gamble is a solid company with great free cash flow generating abilities, but the run up in its share price during the second half of the 2020 calendar year was a tad overdone, in our view. On January 20, Procter & Gamble reported solid earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2021 (period ended December 31, 2020) as its GAAP revenues grew by 8% year-over-year while its GAAP operating income climbed higher by 20%, aided by economies of scale and GAAP gross margin expansion. The company reported strong organic sales growth across all of its core product categories, with its ‘Fabric & Home Care’ and ‘Health Care’ products leading the way. Pricing strength combined with organic volume growth and a favorable product mix played a big role in boosting Procter & Gamble’s margins. It appears consumers are willing to pay up for its products, which tend to be the more expensive items in supermarkets, grocery stores, convenience stores, and similar venues. Looking ahead, Procter & Gamble increased its guidance for fiscal 2021. P&G forecasts it will post annual sales growth (on both a net and organic basis) of 5%-6% and annual diluted EPS growth of 8%-10% this fiscal year, underpinned by its strong performance during the first half of fiscal 2021.

Dec 25, 2020

All I Want for Christmas Are Dividend Aristocrats
Image Source: 5 Furlongs. It may not be as catchy as Mariah Carey's Christmas hit, "All I Want For Christmas Is You," but if you ask a dividend growth investor what they might want for Christmas as it relates to an investment, they might start singing about a long list of Dividend Aristocrats--a list of companies that have increased their dividends in each of the past 20-25+ years. Therefore, we wanted to do something special this Christmas for members. We've aggregated a list of every non-financial Dividend Aristocrat in our 16-page stock report coverage universe and made a list conveniently available, including some key data and links directly to their 16-page stock reports (pdf). To access the 16-page stock report of any company on this list, just click on its name, and you'll be prompted to download that particular company's 16-page stock report pdf file. Remember, we provide separate Dividend Reports for stocks, too. For example, the 16-page stock report pdf file that is linked to a company's name in this article is only a portion of the research, commentary, ratings and data on that particular company. Let's take Emerson Electric as an example. Not only does it have a 16-page Stock Report and additional Valuentum commentary via articles and notes, but it also has a Dividend Report. Both pdf reports can be downloaded on its stock web page (the pdf icons are to the right of the stock chart). We hope you enjoy the vast amount of research connected to the download links on this list. Each company's fair value estimate, Dividend Cushion ratio, Economic Castle rating and much more is backed by our three-stage discounted cash flow process with fully populated financial statements, available by request from Gold and Platinum members. Please download away! What's your favorite Dividend Aristocrat? Comments welcome.

Dec 1, 2020

Walking Through the Calculation of the Dividend Cushion Ratio
Image shown: An image found on page 2 of Valuentum's Dividend Report on Kimberly-Clark. The 'Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction,' shown in the image, reveals the numerator and denominator of the Dividend Cushion ratio. At the core, the larger the numerator (or the healthier a company's balance sheet and future free cash flow generation) relative to the denominator (or a company's future expected cash dividend obligations), the more durable the dividend. In the context of the Dividend Cushion ratio, KimberlyClark's numerator is larger than its denominator suggesting strong dividend coverage in the future. The 'Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction' image puts sources of free cash flow in the context of financial obligations next to expected cash dividend payments over the next 5 years on a side-by-side comparison. Because the Dividend Cushion ratio and many of its components are forward-looking, our dividend evaluation may change upon subsequent updates as future forecasts are altered to reflect new information.We believe the Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most helpful tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based, considers balance sheet health, and is forward looking. Since its development in 2012, we estimate its efficacy at ~90% in helping to forewarn readers of impending dividend cuts. For companies where Valuentum reports are available, the Dividend Cushion ratio can be found in a stock's Dividend Report or in the table on the company's stock landing page. We use Kimberly-Clark as an example of how we calculate the Dividend Cushion ratio and how useful it is for investors of all types.

Nov 2, 2020

ICYMI -- Dividend Growth Strategies Struggle
Image: A large cap growth ETF (orange) has significantly outperformed an ETF tied to a dividend growth strategy, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), which mirrors the total return performance of the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. To no surprise to many members, several dividend growth strategies have faced tremendous pressure during 2020. The Journal recently wrote a piece on the topic, but from our perspective, the problem with many dividend growth strategies is that they tend to be balance-sheet agnostic and pay little attention to traditional free cash flow expectations, focusing only on the yield itself, sometimes dismissing future fundamentals in favor of historical growth trends and the inferior EPS-based dividend payout ratio. In many dividend-targeted ETFs, for example, it may not matter to the index creator whether a firm has $10 billion in net debt or $10 billion in net cash; as long as management has a track record of raising the dividend in the past, it is included. To us, however, there is a world of difference between a company that has a huge net cash position and a huge net debt position. The more excess cash on the balance sheet a dividend payer has, for example, the more secure its payout. In some cases, entities held in high-yielding ETFs don't even cover their dividends or distributions with traditional free cash flow generation, despite having ominous net debt loads. A look at the high-yielding ALPS Alerian MLP ETF, for example, shows a number of entities that are buried under a mountain of debt and are generating meager free cash flow relative to expected distributions. The lofty yield on that ETF should therefore be viewed with a very cautious eye. If the yield weren't at risk for a big cut, the market would bid up the stock, and down the yield would go. In no way should you believe that you can sleep well at night holding stocks yielding north of 10% when the current 10-year Treasury is well below 1%. The market is just not that inefficient. A dividend growth strategy can never be a passive one either. Only through constant attention to the balance sheet (net cash) and future free cash flow expectations can investors truly sleep well at night. At Valuentum, we do the balance sheet and cash flow work and summarize it succinctly in a key ratio called the Dividend Cushion ratio.