Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 23, 2020

Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.

Dec 4, 2019

Cracker Barrel Doing Well Despite Industry Headwinds
Image Source: 2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting, November 21. First-quarter fiscal 2020 results at Cracker Barrel were solid, but the fiscal year is still early, and the restaurant industry backdrop for traffic isn’t as strong as it once was. That said, we expect Cracker Barrel to keep raising menu prices to drive strong comparable store sales performance, which should help the firm achieve operating-margin guidance of 9% during the fiscal year, propelling copious free cash flow generation and supporting capital-return efforts. That said, we’ll be watching traffic performance and cost pressures closely in the coming quarters, but for now, our discounted cash-flow derived fair value estimate of $168 per share stands, reflecting about 17.5x the high end of the firm’s adjusted earnings per share target during fiscal 2020. Cracker Barrel’s Dividend Cushion ratio remains a very healthy 1.5x. Shares yield 3.4% at the time of this writing, and this excludes any special dividends that shareholders have grown accustomed to during the past five years.

Dec 31, 2018

Valuentum Stock Screeners
Brian Nelson provides members with an update on Valuentum's stock screeners and the significant number of forward-looking data we provide. This article was sent to members via email December 29.

Dec 20, 2018

Market Mayhem -- Alerts for Members
Dear members -- we released a number of emails today. Please read and let us know if you have any questions. We're here for you.

Oct 25, 2018

Valuentum's ETF Reports
Image Source: Got Credit. Within each ETF report, we provide in-depth analysis and offer insights to help investors stay on top of key trends impacting exchange traded funds and their underlying industries, companies, and commodities. From evaluating the real estate cycle in REIT-focused ETFs to assessing the business dynamics of top holdings within consumer discretionary ETFs, for example, we focus on relevance and leave nothing important to the investment decision-making process out. Our ETF reports and ratings are completely forward-looking and bring the data to life with easy-to-understand analytics.

Aug 14, 2018

The Inflating Index Fund Bubble
Image Source: Mac.Else von Berlin. The investment industry is changing fast, and we’re happy to be an instrument for change. We’ve been clamoring to make index funds free for a long time, and we’re glad to see it finally happen. Let’s cover the implications of indiscriminate buying regardless of price with the observation that the number of publicly-traded companies is vastly shrinking. How long will the inflating index fund bubble last?

May 30, 2018

Study: Valuentum's Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
"Though we largely achieved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio’s goals in advancing the newsletter portfolio each publication year (ends December 15) and achieving relative outperformance and risk-adjusted superiority to the benchmark, we may have done even better had our equity allocation been full during the measurement period." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

Apr 25, 2018

We Said Consumer Staples Would Underperform
The consumer staples sector has been pummeled by a number of factors, from long-term concerns about the adoption of new products in the tobacco industry to pressures on gross margins for branded consumables and generally underperforming free cash flows in the tried-and-true beverage arena. We still like the business models of many constituents, but you knew this was coming.

Apr 18, 2018

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages
Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website www.valuentum.com. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports.

Mar 12, 2018

The "Luck" and "Randomness" of Index Funds
If the year-to-year performance of active funds relative to index funds can be considered “random,” so then is the year-to-year performance of index funds relative to active funds, regardless of fees and expenses. Image shown: page 1 of 14.