Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 14, 2023

Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios.

Feb 11, 2023

Disney: Iger’s Back, Peltz Concedes, Thousands of Jobs Gone, Dividend Coming Back Soon
Image Source: Valuentum. Disney has a lot of work to do. The company’s Parks, Experiences and Products segment has recovered nicely from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, but pricing increases may put the experience out of reach for many. Disney+ subscribers may have peaked given that the company will begin to cut costs to the bone in an effort to stop the billions in cash burn. Disney ended the year with $8.47 billion in cash and equivalents and a massive $48.4 billion debt load. Investors are happy that Bob Iger is back and with the company’s plans to re-instate a modest dividend later this year, but we think former CEO Bob Chapek may have gotten a bad shake. Chapek took over the week of the huge COVID-driven market crash in February 2020 and led the firm through a once-in-a-century pandemic, only to be shown the door before his investments could ever be given a chance of bearing fruit. There’s more to this story than we’ll ever know, and we doubt that Disney or Iger will have much to say about it.

Jan 15, 2023

Our Reports on Stocks in the Discretionary Spending Industry
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Our reports on stocks in the Discretionary Spending industry can be found in this article: BBY, CBRL, CMG, DIS, DG, DLTR, DPZ, EL, F, GM, HAS, HD, LOW, MCD, NFLX, NKE, SBUX, TSLA, YUM, DKS, TJX, ROST, WHR, KMX, AZO, RL, ULTA, LEG, GPC, VFC, CTAS, WSM.

Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!

Dec 12, 2022

American Tower Ups Dividend Payout 6%+ But Shares Not Immune to REIT Sector Weakness
Image Source: American Tower. Cell tower operator American Tower raised its dividend more than 6% from its last payout in October, and while we like the payout growth momentum, we’re taking note of weakening AFFO and free cash flow trends. The REIT’s net debt position takes on greater prominence in the current rising interest rate environment, too, and its forward estimated dividend yield stands at just ~2.9%, about in line with traditional near-term rates on certificates of deposits. We’re watching deteriorating REIT economics closely.

Nov 28, 2022

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership
In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance--despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening!

Nov 10, 2022

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print
Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also not ruling out a Santa Claus rally through the end of the year. Merry Dow Jones, as they say!

Nov 9, 2022

ALERT: Replacing Disney with Republic Services in BIN Portfolio
Image Source: Valuentum. With content costs on the rise and the potential for the streaming business to become irrational as rivals fight for the incremental customer, Disney has a tough road ahead of it, in our view. Its ‘Parks, Experiences and Products’ segment is recovering nicely from the COVID-19 lockdowns, but losses in its ‘Media and Entertainment Distribution’ business remain very concerning in a difficult advertising environment. Disney has already cut its dividend payout, and while the firm remains free cash flow positive, we’re not fans of its massive net debt position. Our updated fair value estimate of Disney now stands at $93 per share, and it no longer fits the bill of a best idea. We’re replacing it with Republic Services in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The change will be reflected in the next edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter.

Oct 30, 2022

Something New!
Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you'll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you'll see this table in our work going forward.

Oct 27, 2022

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.